The Cincinnati Reds have been a mess for quite some time now.
With 2000 being the most year they've got their head above the .500 mark, and 1995 being the last playoff appearance, the Reds have been nothing but a Ken Griffey, Jr. sideshow for the last decade.
Now that he's been long gone for more than a year now are the Reds close to relevancy again?
Nope.
After another mediocre season, the Big Red Machine can't expect to compete in 2010, but they'll try anyways, if for no other reason than to avoid high draft picks.
In all seriousness, this team isn't even close to a playoff caliber club at the present time and they don't have the money to clean up the mess that General Manager Walt Jocketty inherited.
The 2009 version of the Reds won 78 games and finished 13 games behind the NL Central Champion St. Louis Cardinals. They could finish .500 in the 2010 season but all that would do is screw them out of another high draft pick.
So what's the plan? Be paitient, don't spend money and try to sell off assets like the late-Michael Jackson.
The Reds will have a payroll in the mid-$70 million range without adding any free agents. Last season they started with a similar payroll so there's not a good reason to expect that to change.
Did I mention that ace Edinson Volquez will be missing most if not all the 2010 season recovering from Tommy John surgery?
Instead of adding payroll for 2010, the best plan for the Reds would be shedding it. The payroll falls in line with most mid-market teams but it shouldn't even be that high given that their best players make under $1 million (Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto).
We'll call those three the Killer-J's because if the Reds are ever to build a cornerstone for their franchise, those three will be it.
Before I get into salary purging let's take a look at one of the most pressing situations for the Reds.
Where does Votto, a first baseman, go?
At just under $500 thousand, Votto is too cheap to trade but he has to be moved to the outfield to clear room for stud prospect Yonder Alonso. Votto held his own offensively last year despite some mental health problems and should pair with Bruce and Alonso to form a potential elite 3-4-5 punch.
It might make sense for them to move Johnny Gomes and Willy Taveras out in a trade for some prospects even if it means eating some of the cash. They could stick Votto in left while platooning Chris Dickerson and Drew Stubbs in center.
In theory within the next year or two, this could be an excellent looking outfield if all three reach their maximum potential.
Now onto the messy payroll situation.
Between pitchers Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Francisco Cordero and third baseman Scott Rolen, the Reds have $46.5 million tied up.
Yikes.
I doubt Jocketty will move Rolen after just trading for him but he should look into it. He still plays great defense and is at least above-average offensively.
Cordero, Cinci's closer, probably has the most value of the bunch and is the least important person to hold onto. He recorded 39 saves with a miniscule 2.19 ERA but a closer getting paid $12 million is a luxury this team cannot afford.
The bad news is that contract in it of itself. The Reds will have to eat at least half to net a prospect of value because of the deep trade/free agent market for closers.
Harang and Arroyo had rough seasons but they've had some success before. It'd be a terrific buy-low opportunity for another team even if it means the Reds only get an low-A minor leaguer out of the deal.
The financial flexibility gained from moving any of these players would be well worth getting undersold on the prospect side of the trade.
If Jocketty can clear even half of these contracts, Jocketty would have roughly $25-28 million to spend if without even adding to the current payroll for the deep free agent class of 2011.
Something to look forward to: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Brandon Webb and Javier Vazquez are all unrestricted free agents after this season.
Instead of quick fixes and burying themselves deeper in bloated contract hell, the Reds best bet is to be paitient and hope that pitchers Homer Bailey and Cueto take a big step forward in 2010.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
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