Stat Boy: Screw It, Let's Sign Matt Holliday

The Chicago Cubs need Matt Holliday.

With a lead like that, I could go many places with this article.  I could write about how the new ownership needs to make a splash, one considerably more intriguing than re-signing John Grabow.  Or I could pen a piece detailing how taking signing a good player away from the division rival St. Louis Cardinals would make Cubs fans forget about that whole Aaron Miles experience.

Instead, the Cubs need Holliday's numbers.  That's right, Stats Boy presents the case for the Cubs to break whatever is left in the bank to bring in the slugging outfielder.

Holliday hit 24 home runs and drove in 104 RBIs in 670 plate appearances in 2009, single-handedly out-performing Milton Bradley and Kosuke Fukudome, who combined to hit 23 homers and drive in 94 ribbies.  For what it's worth, Bradley and Fukudome combined to make $16.5 million to post a .258/.376/.409/.785 slash line in 2009.

Tell me again how Jim Hendry still finds himself employed by the Cubs?

I'm sure an outfield that goes Soriano-Fukudome-Holliday would make me watch the Cubs a half-inning at a time (especially when Carlos Silva is pitching) but it would be much better than a Soriano-Byrd-Fukudome, Soriano-Podsednik-Fukudome or Soriano-Ankiel-Fukudome outfield trio.

Throughout his career, Holliday has proven to be a quality hitter during day games, posting a .316/.390/.520/.910 slash line in 1,087 plate appearances in games played in the sunshine.  If there is one statistic future Cubs general managers should look at, it is how a player hits during day games.  I cannot stress that enough for a team that plays a bulk of its home games at 1:20 p.m.

And just to show you I'm not bluffing, check out the slash lines of the other three "candidates" during day games.

• Ankiel: .250/.311/.451/.763 (81 games started, 118 games total)
  
• Byrd: .255/.311/.403/.714 (188 games started, 223 games total)
  
• Podsednik: .285/.350/.396/.747 (266 games started, 309 games total)
  

Only Podsednik's numbers are respectable of the guys Hendry will surely overpay for this offseason.  Then again, when a player who has played center field in only 80 games over the past three seasons is your best option, consider yourself screwed.

Then again, when you have a $140 million payroll and have holes at second base, center field, at the back of the bullpen and in the starting rotation...

Seriously, what the hell are you thinking Jim Hendry?  M.C. Hammer could be more responsible with $140 million, and he'd probably have much better taste in Cardinals cast-offs than you.  Why can't you throw together another back-loaded five-year deal and make this team better.

I digress.

It's not like the Cubs are going to sell out 81 games, make millions off television advertising, merchandising and concessions, and have $25 million potentially coming off the books at the end of the season when Derrek Lee and Ted Lilly hit free agency.

Oh wait, you're telling me all of the above will happen?  Well, then that changes everything doesn't it?

While the idea of playing Holliday in right field for 150 games in 2010 scares me as much as seeing Kevin Gregg or LaTroy Hawkins come into the ninth inning with a one-run lead, I would be able to find solace when Holliday steps to the plate.

I can't say the same for Ankiel, Byrd or Podsednik.

Stat Boy Confirms: 'Juan Pierre Is The Black Scott Podsednik'

The best comment from anyone I've talked to since the White Sox acquired Juan Pierre from the Los Angeles Dodgers was too big for the headline.  So, we shortened it.

"Why did the White Sox trade 2 prospsects for the black Scott Podsednik?"

That's a great question, and Stat Boy has an answer.

When Podsednik has received at least 500 plate appearances in a season he posts the following average numbers:

• .282 batting average
• .345 on-base percentage
• .342 OBP as a lead-off hitter
• .383 OBP when leading off a game
• .356 OBP when leading off an inning
• 48 stolen bases
  

When Pierre has received at least 500 plate appearances in a season he posts the following average numbers:

• .300 batting average
• .347 on-base percentage 
• .347 OBP as a lead-off hitter
• .368 OBP when leading off a game
• .358 OBP when leading off an inning
  
• 54 stolen bases
  

Podsednik made $800,000 last season to post the following line:

•  .304 BA
  
•  .353 OBP
  
•  .412 SLG
• .764 OPS
• 30 stolen bases (43 attempts)
  

Pierre made $10 million last season to post the following line:

• .308 BA
• .365 OBP
• .392 SLG
• .757 OPS
• 30 stolen bases (42 attempts)
  

Oh, and to get tag-teamed by Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.

Long story short, Kenny Williams traded two prospects for a more expensive version of Scott Podsednik.  The South Siders will pay $8 million over the next two years.  I doubt Podsednik, who has never made more than $2.9 million a season, gets more than that on the open market.

I also doubt signing Podsednik costs two able-bodied pitching prospects.

Stat Boy Presents: Saluki Hoops By The Numbers

Remember when I promised stories and tales from Las Vegas?  Pretend that never happened.  So, you'll settle for a picture from a very long time ago and a blog by Stat Boy, breaking down what is a revived Southern Illinois offense.

Take it away, Stat Boy...

Much has been made about The Southern Illinois men's basketball team's hot shooting start mostly because the Salukis have been a team that has prided itself by getting things done on the defensive end of the court.

Not since Rich Herrin's boys were lighting up Missouri Valley Conference scoreboards has Southern seen an offensive bonanza like this.  And really, it starts with a Herrin disciple.

Chris Lowery.

In his introductory press conference, Lowery basically promised a higher scoring offense than what had been seen from Matt Painter's squad.  Sure, Painter had a ton of talent that could score, but like his predecessor Bruce Weber, and their mentor, Purdue's Gene Keady, the Salukis were a team that featured a grind-it-out kind of style.

In its first real test, SIU scored 69 points against UNLV, a team that will likely win 20 games and make a strong case for a NCAA Tournament bid.  And to think, Southern scored 69 while going 5-for-26 from the 3-point line.

If the Salukis score 69 points per game this season, they will win a lot of games.  It seems as if that sentence was a gimme statement, but take into consideration that SIU is XX-X in games in which they score at least 63 points in the Chris Lowery Era.  (Note: That was the stat that helped me get the basketball beat at SIU in the first place.)

There is no denying that 63 is the magic number.  Unless, of course, Southern's defense allows its opponents to ht 75 percent of their field goals in the second half as the Runnin' Rebels did Saturday night.

The following is a retrospective on Southern Illinois' offensive efficiency ... or lack thereof.

2004-05: The Salukis averaged 67.6 points per game and won 27 games and a Missouri Valley Conference title. Darren Brooks averaged 15 points per game, as the starting backcourt of Brooks, Stetson Hairston and Jamaal Tatum combined to average 36.7 points per game.

This is the highest points per game average of any Lowery team.  Many folks with knowledge of Southern Illinois basketball will give all the credit to Bruce Weber and Matt Painter for bringing those guys in.  Yet, those same people (conveniently) forget that Chris Lowery and Rodney Watson were on board as well.

We're talking about four guys on one bench who are currently head coaches in college basketball.  Mull on that as we move along.

2005-06:  The productivity took a major hit without the senior leadership of Brooks and Hairston.  Tatum still got his points (15 PPG) but as a team, SIU averaged only 60.2 points per game.  The Salukis saw drops in field goal percentage (45.2 to 41.3 percent), 3-point field goal percentage (36.5 to 33.4 percent) and free-throw shooting percentage (74.8 to 68.6 percent).

Somehow, Southern was able to ride its defense to a MVC Tournament championship.  You could point at the Saluki defense, but note the team averaged 0.8 less steals per game, coupled with committing 1.5 more turnovers than a season ago and it should have been a recipe for disaster.

Thank Randal Falker for leading the world in blocked shots that season.

2006-07:  Alright, this is the big year.  SIU made the Sweet 16 as Jamaal Tatum averaged 15.2 points, while junior forwards Randal Falker and Matt Shaw took huge leaps of improvement as they averaged 12.3 and 11.3 points per game, respectively.  And yet, the Salukis averaged only 62.9 points per game.

As a team, Southern Illinois shot 44.8 percent from the field, 36.6 percent from the 3-point line and 69.3 percent from the charity stripe.  The Salukis made strides that year offensively, but averaged only 6.6 steals per game, a significant drop-off from a team that averaged 9.2 steals per game a season ago.  This would be a trend for years to come.the lowest of any Lowery led team.

2007-08:  This might be the most disappointing Saluki squad.  Falker and Shaw saw their production level off, and rather than being the complimentary guys for guys like Tatum and Young, they were the go-to-guys, and to be frank, they couldn't handle it and didn't do the job.

SIU averaged 62.6 points per game, even though it improved from the free-throw line as it shot 71 percent from the charity stripe.  Problems occurred elsewhere as the team shot only 42 percent from the field and 34 percent from the 3-point line.  So, where does the blame go for why this season was an offensive nightmare?

Let's start with Joshua Bone, who attempted more 3-point field goals (169) than 2-pointers and free throws combined (135).  Brandon Wood, who is absolutely tearing it up for Valpo averaging almost 23 points per game while nailing 40 percent of his threes, could have (and would have) benefited from an entire redshirt season.  Apparently, that didn't fly with Wood and his folks and he would eventually leave SIU for a JUCO before landing at Valpo, which stands at 1-3 this season despite Wood's heroics.

As Matt Shaw took more shots, his percentages went down.  That's never a good sign.  Shaw shot 46.8 percent from the field his junior year before dropping to 41.4 percent in his senior season.  His 3-point shooting took a hit, too, connecting on only 32.1 percent as a senior after making 35 percent and 37.6 percent in his previous two seasons.  Nothing was more telling than Shaw's struggles at the line, where he made 76 percent of his freebies.  That was down from 80.7 percent as a junior and 41.4 percent.

2008-09:  The highest scoring team since Lowery's first season delivered what was an overall disappointing season.  Sure, they scored 63.6 points per game, led by Kevin Dillard's 12.2 points per game, but the team finished 13-18.

Dillard's outside presence was coupled with Carlton Fay's ability as a face-up four.  Fay came out like gang-busters scoring in double figures in eight of the team's first nine games.  He only hit double figures in six out of the team's last 11 games.

Anthony Booker, Ryan Hare and  Justin Bocot each had their days in which they led the team in scoring, but were never consistent.  Tony Boyle dogged it for much of the year, especially when the Salukis were down.  Boyle showed his best senior leadership down the stretch as he averaged 13.5 PPG in his last four games -- which is something Southern expected out of him over the entire course of the season.

2009-10:  With all of that being said, we finally have made it to the current edition of the Salukis. 

So far, SIU (2-1) is averaging 81.3 points per game, having beaten Tennessee-Martin, 91-63, and the University of Indianapolis, 84-69.  The Salukis entered their game against UNLV shooting 52 percent from beyond the arc, but would go 5-for-26 from the gret beyond in the loss.

Without a doubt, this is Southern's deepest offensive team.  While earlier teams featured guys who would average double figures sometime during their collegiate career, I am convinced that Kevin Dillard, Tony Freeman and Carlton Fay should each finish this year averaging double figures.

The three top dawgs are joined by running mates Justin Bocot and Anthony Booker, both of whom should be a year wiser, a year stronger and a year better.  Freshmen Kendal Brown-Surles and Eugene Teague have shown flashes that make you want to fast forward to their junior and seniior years for just a peak.

John Freeman has been more than serviceable, while Jack Crowder needs further evaluation.  He'll get that at a later time, for this is not the time and place for it.

Simply stated, this team has the most offensive talent and should score the most points.  I have a theory that states, "You can't win if you don't score."  And if SIU outscores its opponents, the Salukis will win a lot of games.

But it doesn't take a stat head to figure that out.

Stat Boy Presents: The Curious Case Of Ryan Theriot

 
Lee: "Seriously, how can a guy this short be our everyday shortstop?"

Did I call it or did I call it?  Again.  Ryan Theriot epitomizes everything that is Chicago Cubs baseball.

Fun to watch until September.

Get off your knees, Riot, you're blowing the game.

For the third straight season, the diminutive Cubs shortstop slumped in September.  Over those 317 plate appearances, Theriot has racked up a .240/.320/.276/.597 line.  Cub fans want him to be a lead-off hitter, but how can they do so with a .320 on-base percentage when it gets down to the nitty gritty?

Theriot's career OBP leading off a game is .329.  Oh wait, no it's not.  That's Alfonso Soriano's.  Want more of an indictment against The Riot in the lead-off spot? His career OBP leading off a game is .312, and when leading off an inning it is .332.  His career OBP when batting first in the order is a respectable .356.

Common sense tells me Theriot just wears down over the brutal 162 game season.

In 2007, his average dropped from .280 to .266.  In 2008, it only dropped from .323 on July 30 to .298 on Sept. 20 before finishing on a tear to get his average back up to .307 to end the season.  After a 7-1 win against the San Diego Padres, Theriot held a .300 batting average.  It would be the last time Theriot would see the big .300 as he finished with a .284 average.

Personally, I'm of the new school of thought that believes batting average is not the be-all, end-all.  So, let's take a look at his OPS, shall we?

In 2007 he posted an OPS of .520 after posting a .701 number in the season's first five months.  The same can be said in 2008 where Theriot notched a .754 OPS through August 31 before watching it drop to .676 in the season's final month.  Wash. Rinse. Repeat in 2009.  Remember Theriot's killer month of May where he ripped 5 home runs, 8 doubles and a triple en route to an .865 OPS.  Well, it was all downhill after that as he posted a .666 OPS in the four months afterward, only reaching an OPS of .700 once.

In each of the last three seasons in which Theriot has been the Cubs' full-time shortstop, his number of strikeouts has risen.  Last season, he drew 73 walks and only struck out 58 times.  In 2009, Theriot struck out 93 times while only drawing 50 walks.  That's an alarming strikeout rate than can be overlooked when you're mashing 40 home runs a year.  But when you're not, those numbers pop up as red flags.

The free agent class of shortstops is void of difference makers unless you have access to a time machine and can acquire the Miguel Tejada that hit 34 homers, drove in 131 runs and posted an .861 OPS en route to an American League Most Valuable Player trophy.

At least that guy posted a .313/.373/.515/.888 line in September.

Stat Boy Speaks: Hey Manny, You Owe Me A NLCS Appearance

Last year at this time, the Chicago Cubs were cruising right along toward a 97-win season and home field advantage throughout the National League playoffs.  They were on a collision course with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who were being sparked by Manny Ramirez's .396/.489/.743/1.232 line.

And as Stat Boy will present to you, what a difference a year can make.

Manny really hasn't been Manny since being slapped with that 50-game suspension earlier this season.  And when he struggles, so do the Dodgers.  Specifically, right fielder Andre Ethier.

Ramirez is 4-for-25 (.160) over his last 10 games which spans his last 39 plate appearances.  In the month of September he has posted a .229/.407/.486/.892 line.  A far cry from the .370/.465/.753/1.218 line he posted over the last month of baseball that included 8 homers, 7 two-baggers and 28 ribbies.

As Ramirez goes, Ethier usually follows.  The lefty-swinging Dodger right fielder is 2-for-32 in the last 10 games he has seen action in -- and has been held hit-less since Sept. 24.  The drought spans his last seven games, 21 plate appearances.  The numbers get uglier when you get closer with a magnifying glass as Ethier is struggling through a 1-for-22 slump over from Sept. 24 to Sept. 30.

This month, Ethier has batted .212/.304/.394/.698.  In the final month of the 2008 baseball campaign, Ethier hit .462/.557/.692/1.249.

Ramirez continued to pummel the baseball when the Dodgers came rolling into the playoffs, posting a .500/.643/1.100/1.743 line.  Along with James Loney's soul-crushing two-out, two-strike grand slam that yours truly had to witness at Wrigley Field, that's all Los Angeles would need to pull past the Cubs.

Now, I'm not one to bitch about what coulda, woulda and shoulda been.  But this Manny situation has got me feeling a bit slighted.  I mean, if not for Manny's torrid run with the Dodgers, they would have clearly been after thoughts in the NL West.  (See: If he's not BALCO'd Up, the Dodgers are D.O.A.)

Arizona wins that division, and maybe the Cubs slip past the Diamondbacks and with home field advantage are able to get past the Phightin' Phillies.  Then, possibly the Cubs, working with the momentum of finally making it past the NLCS for the first time since 1945 are able to knock off the upstart Tampa Bay Devil Rays to win the franchise's first World Series title since 1908.

Lou Piniella won't have to call for Jim Hendry to blow up the team.  Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood never leave as both would offer to play at Wrigley Field for free.  Kevin Gregg never comes, and neither do Aaron Miles or Milton Bradley.  Knowing Hendry's love for not changing things for the better, the Cubs would have likely fielded the exact same team in 2009 as he did in 2008.

By then, Jim Edmonds would have forgotten how to hit or field a baseball as age would have finally caught up to the aging outfielder.  Aramis Ramirez would have never hurt himself trying really hard to get a ground ball down the third base line because he'd be thinking "fuck it, we won a World Series last year" as the ball trickled down into the left field corner.

It is quite likely the Cubs would have imploded again, but in a more spectacular way with it being under different circumstances and all.  But I wouldn't give a damn.  Because they'd have their World Series and I'd have my memories until the day I'm stricken with Alzheimer's.

Stat Boy Learns That Pitchin' Ain't Easy

So much has been written about the Cubs' lack of hitting, that sometimes people overlook the guys on the bump.  To the naked eye, it looks like the Cubs got waxed in their three-game set against the Cardinals.  But to the wise observer, the Cubs starters should be showered with praise after handcuffing one of baseball's best offenses.

Cubs starters Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano combined to eat up 21.2 innings over the weekend.  That's $37.75 million worth of starting pitching earning their respective paychecks.  Lilly and Big Z each allowed two earned runs, while Dempster only allowed one -- on the Brendan Ryan home run with the assist from Bobby Scales' mitt.  The trio's collective WHIP over the weekend  was 1.037.

Those are the kinds of numbers that pitching coaches dream about seeing.  Too bad Larry Rothschild won't get any credit for this.  It's safe to assume that had Dave Duncan been working with this bunch, Teddy, Demp and Big Z would have thrown 27 innings of perfect ball.

More drool-inducing numbers after the jump.

For Lilly, it was more of the same.  Has he benefited from switching from the AL to the NL?  Of course it's only natural. The namesake of former president Theodore Roosvelt, Lilly has posted a 44-25 record since returning to the senior circuit after stints with the Yankees, A's and Blue Jays  His earned run average dipped from 4.52 to 3.84.  Take away his 7.61 ERA in his brief stint with the Washington Nationals Montreal Expos, it drops to 3.68.  And despite a stint on the 15-day DL, Lilly is on pace to make at least 30 starts for the fifth straight year, and seven out of his last eight.

His contract is up after the 2010 season, and if he stays healthy, he could find himself signing an extension to stay in Cubbie blue pinstripes.  At this point, I'd be willing to hook Jim Hendry up to an EKG machine A.S.A.P. to make it happen.

Then there is Dempster, who is pitching more like the guy who won 17 games last season than the guy who imploded in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Dodgers.  He owns a 5-3 record in the second half, a 3.19 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and a 3.59-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  Over his last five starts, Dempster has a 3-1 record, 2.29 ERA, 1.245 WHIP and a 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The key to Demps' reemergence has been his ability to limit the free passes.  Over his last four starts, Dempster has allowed only five walks in 54.1 innings of work.  In six August starts, he allowed 12.  He has pitched in 13 games in which he has received three runs or less in the run support category.  For those of you keeping score at home, that keeps him in a tie with Lilly.  Harden is close behind with 12 of those types of starts, Big Z has 10 of those and "Hard Luck" Randy Wells has only six.

Also, take note that Wells trails Zambrano by 0.01 runs in the run-support-per-game category as El Toro gets 4.86 runs per game to work with while Wells gets 4.85. 

As for Dempster, apparently, he had some issues at home with his child that weighed on him early in the season as reported via a Ken Rosenthal scoop on FOX Saturday baseball.  I've been one of Dempster's most harsh critics, but upon learning this, I'd like to tip my cap to Demp and wish him and his family the best.  If Dempster can get past whatever plagues him and pitch like this over the next three years, he'd be a welcome piece of the puzzle.

And how can you forget about Big Z, the richest member of the North Side's Big Three.  Zambrano earned a buck or two with a quality performance in St. Louis, a team he doesn't always match-up well against.  He scuffled in the fifth inning but did rebound to work a scoreless sixth en route to a no-decision.  Big Z now has 12 of those this year.  His numbers in NDs are as follows: 75.1 IP 3.46 ERA 1.30 WHIP ... all while holding hitters to a .227 batting average against and an OPS of .692.

If Big Z wins half of those starts, it would put him at 14-6.  And by my count, 14-6 > 8-6.

But what do I know?  I'm just Stat Boy.

Statistical Analysis Of The Matt Holliday Trade To The St. Louis Cardinals

Stat Boy says Matt Holliday will love hitting against the NL Central's best.

Good afternoon, folks. Had to wake Stat Boy up from his hangover nap with the news that the St. Louis Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday from the Oakland A's. As usual, Stat Boy has got some good news if you happen to support the Cardinals ... and bad news if you happen to support one of the other National League Central Division contenders.

Take it away, Stat Boy.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Redbird Nation up in arms despite acquiring Matt Holliday. St. Louis is acquiring a career .315 hitter, a three-time All-Star and would have been the 2007 NL MVP had Jimmy Rollins not stolen it from him. However, GM John Mozeliak is paying Billy Beane a hefty price with hot-shot third base prospect Brett Wallace, highly touted right-handed pitcher Clayton Moretnsen and outfielder Shane Peterson.

When it comes to trades with Beane and Oakland, I'd be remiss if I didn't give a buyer beware notice because of the last time these two hooked up for a big trade.

But I'm not here to re-ignite a burning sensation you should probably see a doctor for. Instead, I come to bring St. Louis fans a little bit of good news and the rest of the division some really bad news.

The common misconception is that Holliday can't hit outside of hitters haven Coors Field because he was allergic to gray road uniforms. Apparently, that doesn't count toward NL Central teams, especially the contenders.

• Against the Milwaukee Brewers, Holliday owns a 1.082 OPS with 5 HRs and 13 RBIs, with three of the five dingers coming at Miller Park where he owns a .928 OPS.
• Against the Houston Astros, he owns a .989 OPS and will challenge Albert Pujols for longest home run in Minute Maid history if he gets to face a flat Brad Lidge slider.
• Against the Chicago Cubs, Holliday OPSes .856 ... but his number surprisingly slip to .652 at Wrigley Field. Probably distracted by this particular bleacher babe.

Interesting to note that the team Holliday OPSes the highest against is, in fact, the St. Louis Cardinals, where he owns a career 1.225 against the Redbirds.

Want more numbers? Of course you do.

He batted .394 with a .475 on-base percentage while slugging .750. I'm sure Cardinals fans are glad Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Ryan Franklin don't have to face that anymore.

Then there are Holliday's numbers at Busch Stadium II. I'll acknowledge the small sample size, but even Don Denkinger can see .385/.478/.872/1.350 is impressive. Not to mention the five homers in 46 career plate appearances.

When the going gets tough, Holliday seems to get going with a .305 career batting average after the seventh inning to go along with 38 homers and 142 runs batted in.

Truth be told (as pointed out by Hire Jim Essian), Holliday's bat is, in essence, a replacement for the 30 homer 100 ribbie year expected out of Troy Glaus at the hot corner. But more than that, adding Holliday shows that the Cardinals will not settle to be just "one of the guys" in the race.

This trade means they're for real.

Whatever that means

Defending Jake Peavy

Get your popcorn ready and your Facebook status updated, Stat Boy is here to defend Jake Peavy.

Yesterday, the 2007 NL Cy Young award winner did like any normal 28-year-old with a family in mind, he made the rational decision of choosing to live in beautiful San Diego rather than the South Side of Chicago.

I would probably make that same decision too, unless the White Sox threw in a lifetime supply of chicken from Harold's Chicken Shack.

However, Stat Boy feels as if Harold's Chicken did not play a part in Peavy's decision to dismiss the White Sox. But the following three things might have.

1. "I like the NL" really means "I like Petco Park." Can you blame Jake Peavy for not wanting to leave The Spacious Confines? I mean, he is nearly unhittable as he owns a 1.08 WHIP and batters only hit .219 while slugging at a .334 clip. You've gotta be some sort of clinically insane pitcher to want to leave Petco for The Cell when you're putting up Nintendo numbers.

2. West is best for his pitching style. But it's not just Petco Park that keeps Peavy's pimp hand strong. Playing in the NL West not only means facing weak sister line-ups, but it means doing so in pitcher's paradise parks such as Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park. He is 40-29 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.202 WHIP and 559 strikeouts.

3. The White Sox aren't that good. Going from a 19-22 team to a 17-23 team really isn't a stepping into the heat of a pennant race. The ChiSox are inept defensively without a center fielder that can overcome the deficiencies of Carlos Quentin and an aging Jermaine Dye. The Sox are only 10-9 at home, while the Pads are 14-6 at confines that seem to be truly friendly to Peavy.

The diminishing returns factor might be the biggest hurdle the San Diego Padres must clear in trading Jake Peavy. They balked at the best offer on the table from the Braves, then they walked away from an equally solid offer from the Cubs.

If this goes any further, you might be able to get a former Cy Young winner for a bucket of balls and some pine tar.

Pending Peavy's approval, of course.

Stat Boy Presents: Change Cubs Fan Can Believe In

It was lights out for the Cubs almost as soon as Albert Pujols launched a first-inning homer that knocked out the 'I' in Big Mac Land. What can I say? I guess that is The Machine's way to say he is ready to move on from the Mark McGwire Era.

And Stat Boy is eager to move away from the era in which Ryan Freel, Mike Fontenot and Aaron Miles patrol third base.

Once upon a time, Freel was a very valuable utility player who averaged 36 steals and a .367 on-base percentage while playing various positions for the Cincinnati Reds from 2004 to 2006. Since then, Freel has strayed away from stealing bases and has wandered over to Craigslist to steal some hearts as he has 21 steals since his hey-day.

And in addition to his 0-for-3 night at the plate, Freel found a way to do the impossible: Overthrow the giant of a Gold Glove winning first baseman also known as Derrek Lee.

Meanwhile, Fontenot continues to struggle, even though manager Lou Piniella moved him back to his natural position of second base. And Miles has been as effective as Mike Damone's five-point plan.

So it's time to get all fantasy baseball in this bitch and invoke some change Cubs fans can believe in.

Radical Step One is going to a local sports equipment store and buying a new second baseman's mitt for Alfonso Soriano, who is making $16 million this year and probably could afford to buy his own glove. Soriano slugged as a second sacker as he mashed 157 homers, posted an .820 OPS and stole 162 bases as a full-timer from 2001-05.

On the other hand, he committed 105 errors at second base in that time.

But second basemen that average 31 homers, 38 doubles, 32 steals and 90 ribbies don't grow on trees. Sometimes the best defense is an offensive attack that will produce long balls, two-baggers and swiped bags.

Soriano's hop and dart-throwing arm in left field would be gone, but not forgotten. Speaking of dart throwing, remember when Bob Brenly said you could throw a dart in the Cubs dugout and find a better defensive outfielder than Soriano.

If I was throwing the dart, it would have hit Micah Hoffpauir.

The life-long Four-A player is what Daryle Ward would have been had he not eaten the entire post-game spread.

Hoffpauir might as well have his name changed to Hoffpower as he has hit .314 with a .372 OBP to go along with four homers and 14 RBIs ... and in 53 less plate appareances has outperformed the Cubs everyday first baseman, who also has four home runs and 18 runs batted in.

"The Hoff" can play left and put Brenly's prediction to the test. And even if he butchers a ball or two (or two dozen), it will matter less if he keeps slugging at a .557 clip.

And at third base, Bobby Scales, please stand up, grab a glove and head over to the area vacated by Aramis Ramirez.

Scales had more hits in his first week in the big leagues than Fontenot and Miles have combined for in their last 14 games combined.

Hopefully on this road trip the Cubs will find their bats while somehow stranding Fontenot, Miles and Neal Cotts at the San Diego Zoo.

Hey Ryan, Stat Boy Needs To Check Out Your 'Riot' Stick

Ryan Theriot has more home runs than David Ortiz, Matt Holliday, Chipper Jones and David Wright.

That stat alone is worth Bud Selig demanding a urine sample from the diminutive Chicago Cubs shortstop ... especially after a two-homer game Wednesday against the San Diego Padres.

And even though it is May 14th and Theriot will certainly be passed by all of those players before the season is over, it is never too soon for Stat Boy to take a closer look at what the Cubbie blue spark plug is up to.

Theriot hit four homers for the National League Central champions in 1,258 plate appearances from 2007 to 2008. Now, one-fourth of the Middle-Infield Midget Society (along with Mike Fontenot, Ryan Freel and Aaron Miles) has five homers in about 130 plate appearances.

The Cajun Shortstop Sensation is on pace for a 20 home run season. If Theriot followed the pace he had set the last two years, it would have taken 6,290 plate appearances for him to hit the 20-homer plateau.

Yep, sounds like the stuff that laboratory-created ballplayers is made of. I hope Theriot has Peter Gammons on speed dial when the day of reckoning comes. Or a good alibi at the least.

Salukis slide continues with loss at Nevada

It's never good when a road trip starts off with a flat tire.

That's a lesson the SIU men's basketball team probably just learned.

The Salukis have lost five of their last six games and its most recent loss, a 62-48 downer at the hands of Nevada, might have been the most puzzling to me.

SIU (3-5) was up 27-24 at halftime, but it was a lead that wasn't meant to be as the Wolfpack opened the second half on a 16-0 run. You've got to give it to the Salukis for being resillient throughout their early season struggles. They cut the Nevada (5-4) lead to six when senior forward Tony Boyle (14 points 7 rebounds) knocked down a jumper with 4:10 remaining in the game before the Wolfpack's Armon Johnson took over.

Johnson scored a game-high 16 points, eight of which came in the games final five minutes to ice the win for the home team.

For more on the Saluki loss, I turn it over to my alter ego, Stat Boy. And as always, important stats are bold.

...

Speaking of turning it over, turnovers played a big role in the demise of SIU as it committed 18 turnovers. Giving the ball away when you're shooting 28.3 percent from the field isn't going to help a team struggling to find its offensive identity.

By the way, the Salukis have committed 95 turnovers in their five losses this season (19 per game average) for those of you keeping score at home.

SIU head coach Chris Lowery played lineup shuffle again Sunday as he inserted senior guard Wesley Clemmons into the starting five. It's hard to argue with the move, especially after he lit up Charlotte from beyond the arc as he went 4-for-5 from 3-point territory. However, his numbers took a dive against Nevada as he went 0-for-4 from the field, scoring 1 point off a free-throw.

Clemmons didn't get any help from his backcourt mates either. Saluki guards not named Bryan Mullins (13 points 5 assists 4 steals) combined for 5 points on 1-for-9 shooting from the field. The much-heralded class of Kevin Dillard, Torres Roundtree, Ryan Hare and Justin Bocot need to find a way to fill up the cup. It will make the lives of Boyle, sophomore forward Carlton Fay and the rest of the bigs easier.

In a positive note for SIU, it was able to outrebound Nevada 29-27, with 14 of those coming on the offensive glass. It's too bad the Salukis were unable to turn them all into second chance points.

...

SIU returns to the great state of Illinois Wednesday night as it travels to DeKalb to face Northern Illinois. Here's hoping the team has a short memory and can get back in the win column and help Chris Lowery win his 100th game as Saluki head coach.

Sports Speak: The 'Their record isn't indicative of how good they are' Edition

I sense a disturbing trend coming from the world of press conferences.

I understand why coaches are very careful with their words. They don't want to provide bulletin board material for opponents. They don't want their players to see their words about their competition to the point where the players will slack off thinking they're facing a cupcake.

Yet, my alter ego (Stat Boy) cannot allow this to go any further. He is confused because numbers don't lie, right?

SIU men's basketball coach, Chris Lowery, the floor is yours.

"They're a much better team than 2-6," Lowery said. "Every game they've played has been like this. It's come down to the last possession, last shot."

Stat Boy says: With all due respect, Charlotte's 2-6 record is indicative of the team it fields on a daily basis. Of the 49ers' six losses, they have two one-point losses, a three-point loss and a five point loss.

And they're not playing the little sisters of the poor, either. The team's to have defeat Charlotte (Old Dominion, Clemson, Arizona State, Providence and Cal-State Fullerton) have a combined record of 33-14. Of those squads, Clemson is 9-0 and ASU is ranked No. 19. On the other hand, ODU is .500 (3-3), CSF is one game under the break even point (4-5).

So credit Charlotte's AD for putting together a tough non-conference schedule, but good teams find ways to turn those 'Ls' into 'Ws' because really those are the only stats that matter. But if you want to be a good team, then you have to beat good teams. If not, you're going to be an average or even below average team.

It's as simple as that.

As for the opponents in 49er victories (SIU and UNC Greensboro), they've combined to post a 4-9 record.

Oh yeah, about C-Lo's crew. The floor now belongs to the representative from Charlotte, Bobby Lutz.

"I don't think their record is indicative of how good they are," Lutz said. "I know they are the most physical team we've played this year, and we've played some pretty good teams."

Stat Boy say: Lutz might be correct on this one, as every coach that faces the Salukis comments on the physical nature in which the Egyptian Hunting Dawgs play the game.

Duke's Coach K lauded SIU defenders for being aggressive without the need to run a full court press. UCLA's Ben Howland applauded the Salukis' defensive efforts, and that's high praise coming from one of the nation's top defensive coaches. Heck, even Saint Louis head man Rick Majerus gave Southern's "D" the thumbs up in between stories of the olden days and basically calling Brett Thompson the next Michael Doleac.

Still, Stat Boy could (and would) argue that the Salukis' 3-4 record is indicative of the team that takes the court on a nightly basis.

They're young and talented as six newcomers are averaging at least 11 minutes per game, two of them start (Ryan Hare and Torres Roundtree) and Kevin Dillard was a former starter. Then there's junior forward Christian Cornelius who might as well be a newcomer as is averaging double-digit minutes for the first time in his career because he's finally shaken the injury bug.

(Knock on wood)

But with youth comes inexperience. And with inexperience comes the streaky play that comes with players still adjusting to the collegiate game.

Dillard is the perfect example of Southern's up-and-down season. Illinois' reigning Mr. Basketball has had several highlight-reel moments early this season. He has dazzled crowds and defenders with a combination of flashy passes and dribbling that would make crowds at the Rucker stand and cheer. He's shooting 50 percent from beyond the arc and averaging 9.7 points per game, to boot.

Then again, he makes youthful mistakes with some passes when they go awry. Or takes shots early in the shot clock. It's the gift and the curse of young stars.

That's what you get out of .500 teams. You get games that make you say "Wow, this team is going to be good." Then you get games that leave you saying "This is going to be a long season."

Don't get me wrong, there is plenty of basketball to be played this season. SIU has yet to even break into Missouri Valley Conference play, and that will be the ultimate indicator of where the season is going to go.

Until then, don't be surprised if this season is a rollercoaster.

(Photo credit to the best photo editor in the history of the world, Stephen Rickerl, who caught a very disappointed photo of SIU head coach Chris Lowery during the team's 66-64 loss against Charlotte).

Patrick Beverley is going overseas, and not with an exchange program

Bob Sakamoto of the Chicago Tribune has the Patrick Beverley going overseas story covered like a jimmy-hat. Stat Boy might have found a more intriguing reason on why the former Arkansas star is walking out.

"It had nothing to do with academics,'' said Beverley, the Razorbacks' lone returning starter who averaged 12.1 points and 6.6 rebounds. "I violated NCAA rules, and what happened next went over the coaches' heads. A lot of people thought it was because of grades, but I go to class every day."

For a second, let's overlook the fact that he violated NCAA rules to bring the buried lead out.

The 6-foot-1-inch point guard averaged 6.6 rebounds per game despite having a 7-footer on the team.

By the way, that 7-footer averaged only 2.9 RPG in 16.3 minutes per game. Still, extrapolate that into a 30 minute average and those numbers jump to 5.3 RPG per game...not good enough for a guy who is almost a foot taller than the team's leading rebounder.

Screw grades. Screw NCAA violations. Maybe the reason Beverley is headed across the Atlantic is because he outshines a guy who stands a foot taller than he does.

Did Stat Boy just use Mo Williams and Jeff Blauser in the same sentence?

Apparently, LeBron James doesn't read this blog. And why would he? He's a multi-millionaire currently overseas trying to bring the gold home to the U.S.A. But if he did, maybe he'd be less than thrilled if he had read yesterday's blog, his excitement would be a little more tempered. Or maybe not? We'll let my alter-ego "Stat Boy" handle this one.

Mo Williams' addition to the Cavs looks like one of those "if you can't beat 'em, steal 'em" kinda deals. He lit up the Cavs in to the tune of 26 points, nine assists and more than six rebounds per game. The four game sample size isn't much--but it's still something to take note of.

• In a March 22 108-98 Bucks victory, Williams scored 29 points, grabbed 5 boards and dished out 13 assists.
• In a Feb. 26 105-102 victory, Mo dropped a season-high (and presumably a career-high) 37 points to go along with six assists and seven rebounds.
• In a Nov. 20 111-107 triumph, Williams scored 20 points with 9 assists and six rebounds.

In closing, Mo averaged 28.6 ppg, six rebounds and 9.3 assists in the Bucks' three wins against Bron-Bron's Cavs. That's 11.4 more points, 2.5 more rebounds and three more assists than he averaged over the entire NBA season.

Those are some pretty intriguing numbers if you ask me.

Here's hoping (for LeBron's sake) that Mo Williams isn't to the Cavs what Jeff Blauser was to the Cubs.*

*Jeff Blauser was an All-Star Atlanta Braves shortstop. Blauser hit .351 with a .431 OBP and a 1.023 OPS in 78 career games against the Cubs. In two seasons as a Cub, he hit .230 with a .343 OBP and .703 OPS.

In response to 'LeBron gives Cavs 'A' for Williams trade' (Akron Beacon Journal)