Stat Boy Presents: Saluki Hoops By The Numbers

Remember when I promised stories and tales from Las Vegas?  Pretend that never happened.  So, you'll settle for a picture from a very long time ago and a blog by Stat Boy, breaking down what is a revived Southern Illinois offense.

Take it away, Stat Boy...

Much has been made about The Southern Illinois men's basketball team's hot shooting start mostly because the Salukis have been a team that has prided itself by getting things done on the defensive end of the court.

Not since Rich Herrin's boys were lighting up Missouri Valley Conference scoreboards has Southern seen an offensive bonanza like this.  And really, it starts with a Herrin disciple.

Chris Lowery.

In his introductory press conference, Lowery basically promised a higher scoring offense than what had been seen from Matt Painter's squad.  Sure, Painter had a ton of talent that could score, but like his predecessor Bruce Weber, and their mentor, Purdue's Gene Keady, the Salukis were a team that featured a grind-it-out kind of style.

In its first real test, SIU scored 69 points against UNLV, a team that will likely win 20 games and make a strong case for a NCAA Tournament bid.  And to think, Southern scored 69 while going 5-for-26 from the 3-point line.

If the Salukis score 69 points per game this season, they will win a lot of games.  It seems as if that sentence was a gimme statement, but take into consideration that SIU is XX-X in games in which they score at least 63 points in the Chris Lowery Era.  (Note: That was the stat that helped me get the basketball beat at SIU in the first place.)

There is no denying that 63 is the magic number.  Unless, of course, Southern's defense allows its opponents to ht 75 percent of their field goals in the second half as the Runnin' Rebels did Saturday night.

The following is a retrospective on Southern Illinois' offensive efficiency ... or lack thereof.

2004-05: The Salukis averaged 67.6 points per game and won 27 games and a Missouri Valley Conference title. Darren Brooks averaged 15 points per game, as the starting backcourt of Brooks, Stetson Hairston and Jamaal Tatum combined to average 36.7 points per game.

This is the highest points per game average of any Lowery team.  Many folks with knowledge of Southern Illinois basketball will give all the credit to Bruce Weber and Matt Painter for bringing those guys in.  Yet, those same people (conveniently) forget that Chris Lowery and Rodney Watson were on board as well.

We're talking about four guys on one bench who are currently head coaches in college basketball.  Mull on that as we move along.

2005-06:  The productivity took a major hit without the senior leadership of Brooks and Hairston.  Tatum still got his points (15 PPG) but as a team, SIU averaged only 60.2 points per game.  The Salukis saw drops in field goal percentage (45.2 to 41.3 percent), 3-point field goal percentage (36.5 to 33.4 percent) and free-throw shooting percentage (74.8 to 68.6 percent).

Somehow, Southern was able to ride its defense to a MVC Tournament championship.  You could point at the Saluki defense, but note the team averaged 0.8 less steals per game, coupled with committing 1.5 more turnovers than a season ago and it should have been a recipe for disaster.

Thank Randal Falker for leading the world in blocked shots that season.

2006-07:  Alright, this is the big year.  SIU made the Sweet 16 as Jamaal Tatum averaged 15.2 points, while junior forwards Randal Falker and Matt Shaw took huge leaps of improvement as they averaged 12.3 and 11.3 points per game, respectively.  And yet, the Salukis averaged only 62.9 points per game.

As a team, Southern Illinois shot 44.8 percent from the field, 36.6 percent from the 3-point line and 69.3 percent from the charity stripe.  The Salukis made strides that year offensively, but averaged only 6.6 steals per game, a significant drop-off from a team that averaged 9.2 steals per game a season ago.  This would be a trend for years to come.the lowest of any Lowery led team.

2007-08:  This might be the most disappointing Saluki squad.  Falker and Shaw saw their production level off, and rather than being the complimentary guys for guys like Tatum and Young, they were the go-to-guys, and to be frank, they couldn't handle it and didn't do the job.

SIU averaged 62.6 points per game, even though it improved from the free-throw line as it shot 71 percent from the charity stripe.  Problems occurred elsewhere as the team shot only 42 percent from the field and 34 percent from the 3-point line.  So, where does the blame go for why this season was an offensive nightmare?

Let's start with Joshua Bone, who attempted more 3-point field goals (169) than 2-pointers and free throws combined (135).  Brandon Wood, who is absolutely tearing it up for Valpo averaging almost 23 points per game while nailing 40 percent of his threes, could have (and would have) benefited from an entire redshirt season.  Apparently, that didn't fly with Wood and his folks and he would eventually leave SIU for a JUCO before landing at Valpo, which stands at 1-3 this season despite Wood's heroics.

As Matt Shaw took more shots, his percentages went down.  That's never a good sign.  Shaw shot 46.8 percent from the field his junior year before dropping to 41.4 percent in his senior season.  His 3-point shooting took a hit, too, connecting on only 32.1 percent as a senior after making 35 percent and 37.6 percent in his previous two seasons.  Nothing was more telling than Shaw's struggles at the line, where he made 76 percent of his freebies.  That was down from 80.7 percent as a junior and 41.4 percent.

2008-09:  The highest scoring team since Lowery's first season delivered what was an overall disappointing season.  Sure, they scored 63.6 points per game, led by Kevin Dillard's 12.2 points per game, but the team finished 13-18.

Dillard's outside presence was coupled with Carlton Fay's ability as a face-up four.  Fay came out like gang-busters scoring in double figures in eight of the team's first nine games.  He only hit double figures in six out of the team's last 11 games.

Anthony Booker, Ryan Hare and  Justin Bocot each had their days in which they led the team in scoring, but were never consistent.  Tony Boyle dogged it for much of the year, especially when the Salukis were down.  Boyle showed his best senior leadership down the stretch as he averaged 13.5 PPG in his last four games -- which is something Southern expected out of him over the entire course of the season.

2009-10:  With all of that being said, we finally have made it to the current edition of the Salukis. 

So far, SIU (2-1) is averaging 81.3 points per game, having beaten Tennessee-Martin, 91-63, and the University of Indianapolis, 84-69.  The Salukis entered their game against UNLV shooting 52 percent from beyond the arc, but would go 5-for-26 from the gret beyond in the loss.

Without a doubt, this is Southern's deepest offensive team.  While earlier teams featured guys who would average double figures sometime during their collegiate career, I am convinced that Kevin Dillard, Tony Freeman and Carlton Fay should each finish this year averaging double figures.

The three top dawgs are joined by running mates Justin Bocot and Anthony Booker, both of whom should be a year wiser, a year stronger and a year better.  Freshmen Kendal Brown-Surles and Eugene Teague have shown flashes that make you want to fast forward to their junior and seniior years for just a peak.

John Freeman has been more than serviceable, while Jack Crowder needs further evaluation.  He'll get that at a later time, for this is not the time and place for it.

Simply stated, this team has the most offensive talent and should score the most points.  I have a theory that states, "You can't win if you don't score."  And if SIU outscores its opponents, the Salukis will win a lot of games.

But it doesn't take a stat head to figure that out.