Stat Boy: Screw It, Let's Sign Matt Holliday

The Chicago Cubs need Matt Holliday.

With a lead like that, I could go many places with this article.  I could write about how the new ownership needs to make a splash, one considerably more intriguing than re-signing John Grabow.  Or I could pen a piece detailing how taking signing a good player away from the division rival St. Louis Cardinals would make Cubs fans forget about that whole Aaron Miles experience.

Instead, the Cubs need Holliday's numbers.  That's right, Stats Boy presents the case for the Cubs to break whatever is left in the bank to bring in the slugging outfielder.

Holliday hit 24 home runs and drove in 104 RBIs in 670 plate appearances in 2009, single-handedly out-performing Milton Bradley and Kosuke Fukudome, who combined to hit 23 homers and drive in 94 ribbies.  For what it's worth, Bradley and Fukudome combined to make $16.5 million to post a .258/.376/.409/.785 slash line in 2009.

Tell me again how Jim Hendry still finds himself employed by the Cubs?

I'm sure an outfield that goes Soriano-Fukudome-Holliday would make me watch the Cubs a half-inning at a time (especially when Carlos Silva is pitching) but it would be much better than a Soriano-Byrd-Fukudome, Soriano-Podsednik-Fukudome or Soriano-Ankiel-Fukudome outfield trio.

Throughout his career, Holliday has proven to be a quality hitter during day games, posting a .316/.390/.520/.910 slash line in 1,087 plate appearances in games played in the sunshine.  If there is one statistic future Cubs general managers should look at, it is how a player hits during day games.  I cannot stress that enough for a team that plays a bulk of its home games at 1:20 p.m.

And just to show you I'm not bluffing, check out the slash lines of the other three "candidates" during day games.

• Ankiel: .250/.311/.451/.763 (81 games started, 118 games total)
  
• Byrd: .255/.311/.403/.714 (188 games started, 223 games total)
  
• Podsednik: .285/.350/.396/.747 (266 games started, 309 games total)
  

Only Podsednik's numbers are respectable of the guys Hendry will surely overpay for this offseason.  Then again, when a player who has played center field in only 80 games over the past three seasons is your best option, consider yourself screwed.

Then again, when you have a $140 million payroll and have holes at second base, center field, at the back of the bullpen and in the starting rotation...

Seriously, what the hell are you thinking Jim Hendry?  M.C. Hammer could be more responsible with $140 million, and he'd probably have much better taste in Cardinals cast-offs than you.  Why can't you throw together another back-loaded five-year deal and make this team better.

I digress.

It's not like the Cubs are going to sell out 81 games, make millions off television advertising, merchandising and concessions, and have $25 million potentially coming off the books at the end of the season when Derrek Lee and Ted Lilly hit free agency.

Oh wait, you're telling me all of the above will happen?  Well, then that changes everything doesn't it?

While the idea of playing Holliday in right field for 150 games in 2010 scares me as much as seeing Kevin Gregg or LaTroy Hawkins come into the ninth inning with a one-run lead, I would be able to find solace when Holliday steps to the plate.

I can't say the same for Ankiel, Byrd or Podsednik.

Lackey, Holliday Go Opposite Ways In Paper Chase

Thursday was a tale of two potential free agents.
 

The Best of Times:

• John Lackey -- Lackey headlines a relatively weak starting pitchers free agent pool, but is a certified ace. He threw seven scoreless innings as he scattered four hits and struck out four in the Angels' Game 1 win against the Red Sox. Lackey is now 3-3 all time in postseason games with a 3.04 earned run average in 11 games (9 starts)

The Worst of Times:

• Matt Holliday -- The big fish the Redbirds were able to snag in the offseason hit an early home run to give the Cardinals a 1-0 lead against the Dodgers.  Somewhere, Scott Boras was calculating how many millions he could get out of a team with each hit Holliday collects in the postseason.  The problem was that the next hit Holliday would get would be to his crotch.  His outfield gaffe with two outs and no one on sparked Los Angeles' game-winning rally.  He is now 2-for-8 in the series.
  
• Ryan Franklin --  The St. Louis closer already got his money,  but do you think the Redbirds' front office is having buyers remorse right now?  Since Sept. 1, Franklin owns a 2-2 record and 6.75 ERA.  He's allowed 15 hits in 9 innings and has allowed 10 walks after allowing nine in the previous three months combined.  His 2.760 WHIP is more than three times higher than what it was in the month of June.

While The Cubs Continue Their Collapse, Matt Holliday Thinks He Just Might Stay Awhile

Matt Holliday could become a permanent fixture behind Albert Pujols. No homo(?)

I'm not sure why anyone would want to stay in St. Louis for an extended amount of time.  The city itself is really nothing to write home about after you get outside of the Arch, the riverboat and the sport complexes.  Unless, of course, you're writing home in search of an escape route.

But here's Matt Holliday in St. Louis, turning into the MVP candidate Billy Beane thought he'd be in Oakland.

Since becoming Albert Pujols' muscle man (pause), Holliday has been nothing short of spectacular.  He's posted a .386/.448/.667/1.114 line across the board.  Those are classic Holliday-in-Colorado numbers.  So, I guess there's no surprise that No. 15 wants to return to bat behind No. 5.

Via St. Louis radio station The Team:

"That would be really exciting for me to get a chance to be here and play next to Albert (Pujols) along with the rest of these guys and to do some special things over the next however many years. Hopefully this will be a long-term relationship."

Remember when Jim Hendry said he didn't need to make a counter move.  He was wrong.  I knew it then.  And hopefully, he knows it now.

If Hendry doesn't re-tool this mess, I won't be alone in bypassing the 2010 Cubs.

And if all else fails, at least this true Chicagoan can take solace that his city has a professional basketball team and a downtown area it can be proud of.

H/T: MLBTR

Statistical Analysis Of The Matt Holliday Trade To The St. Louis Cardinals

Stat Boy says Matt Holliday will love hitting against the NL Central's best.

Good afternoon, folks. Had to wake Stat Boy up from his hangover nap with the news that the St. Louis Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday from the Oakland A's. As usual, Stat Boy has got some good news if you happen to support the Cardinals ... and bad news if you happen to support one of the other National League Central Division contenders.

Take it away, Stat Boy.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Redbird Nation up in arms despite acquiring Matt Holliday. St. Louis is acquiring a career .315 hitter, a three-time All-Star and would have been the 2007 NL MVP had Jimmy Rollins not stolen it from him. However, GM John Mozeliak is paying Billy Beane a hefty price with hot-shot third base prospect Brett Wallace, highly touted right-handed pitcher Clayton Moretnsen and outfielder Shane Peterson.

When it comes to trades with Beane and Oakland, I'd be remiss if I didn't give a buyer beware notice because of the last time these two hooked up for a big trade.

But I'm not here to re-ignite a burning sensation you should probably see a doctor for. Instead, I come to bring St. Louis fans a little bit of good news and the rest of the division some really bad news.

The common misconception is that Holliday can't hit outside of hitters haven Coors Field because he was allergic to gray road uniforms. Apparently, that doesn't count toward NL Central teams, especially the contenders.

• Against the Milwaukee Brewers, Holliday owns a 1.082 OPS with 5 HRs and 13 RBIs, with three of the five dingers coming at Miller Park where he owns a .928 OPS.
• Against the Houston Astros, he owns a .989 OPS and will challenge Albert Pujols for longest home run in Minute Maid history if he gets to face a flat Brad Lidge slider.
• Against the Chicago Cubs, Holliday OPSes .856 ... but his number surprisingly slip to .652 at Wrigley Field. Probably distracted by this particular bleacher babe.

Interesting to note that the team Holliday OPSes the highest against is, in fact, the St. Louis Cardinals, where he owns a career 1.225 against the Redbirds.

Want more numbers? Of course you do.

He batted .394 with a .475 on-base percentage while slugging .750. I'm sure Cardinals fans are glad Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Ryan Franklin don't have to face that anymore.

Then there are Holliday's numbers at Busch Stadium II. I'll acknowledge the small sample size, but even Don Denkinger can see .385/.478/.872/1.350 is impressive. Not to mention the five homers in 46 career plate appearances.

When the going gets tough, Holliday seems to get going with a .305 career batting average after the seventh inning to go along with 38 homers and 142 runs batted in.

Truth be told (as pointed out by Hire Jim Essian), Holliday's bat is, in essence, a replacement for the 30 homer 100 ribbie year expected out of Troy Glaus at the hot corner. But more than that, adding Holliday shows that the Cardinals will not settle to be just "one of the guys" in the race.

This trade means they're for real.

Whatever that means

My Pitch To Jim Hendry For Matt Holliday

Jim Hendry should rent A's OF Matt Holliday by any means necessary.

Cubs GM Jim Hendry is due for a good move, right? Through 73 games, Hendry is 0-for-the-offseason as Milton Bradley, Aaron Miles, Kevin Gregg and Ryan Dempster have flopped or fell short of the lofty expectations that come with multi-million dollar deals or, in Gregg's case, being traded for a prospect once deemed untouchable.

And just like last season, Cubdom is up in arms over a move by one of its arch division rivals in an attempt to unseat the Cubs from their perch atop the NL Central. I've seen this movie before. And as a Cubs fan, I like where this movie ends. But for some reason, I always fall asleep whenever the part about October rolls around. Funny how that works.

Hendry can make his detractors (mainly yours truly) by making one brash move that could push this team over the top.

Trade for Matt Holliday.

I know this seems like more of a stretch than Prince Fielder's waistline, but here me out. This would be the ultimate rent-a-player scenario, which could appease Sam Zell and the fools at TribCo that are basically holding the Cubs and the Ricketts family hostage. Adding Holliday would make the Cubbie faithful forget all about Mark DeRosa playing for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Stick Holliday in left and move Alfonso Soriano to second. Take note that any move the Cubs make to acquire an outfielder will likely bump Soriano to second base. And I don't want to hear about how bad his defense is there, because if it's bad one place it is bad other places too. At least at second, his numbers will generally out-perform the average second sacker.

Back to Holliday, whose big bat is the boost the boys in blue need. Now, how's that for alliteration?

There are a handful of things Hendry should take into consideration when acquiring his next big bat.

1. How he hits at Wrigley/day games.
2. How he hits on the road against NL Central teams.
3. Production in the second half.
4. Playoff production.
5. The bounty.

And how does Holliday stack up?

1. Well, the numbers at Wrigley aren't pretty where he is a a career .229 hitter with only one homer and four ribbies. However, things look a lot better when the sun is out. Holliday owns a career .319 average, .391 OBP, .531 slugging percentage and .922 OPS.

2. While Holliday has struggled against the Cubs at Wrigley, he hits pretty well against the rest of the NL Central. He's got a career .292 average against the Reds, but has an underwhelming .269 average at The Great American Ball Park. Against the Brewers, Holliday has a ridiculous .342 average and 1.082 OPS. At Miller Park, he owns a .928 OPS. At Busch Satdium II, he has hit an absurd .385 with 5 homers in 11 games against the Cardinals.

3. The most encouraging stat backing Holliday is his .314/.388/.568/.967 slash stats in 1,380 second-half plate appearances.

4. The second most encouraging stat could be his career .289 average and .919 OPS in 11 games. Holliday makes Mark DeRosa look like a bum with numbers like that.

5. It's easy to use baseball-reference.com to back my argument, but it means nothing unless there is a match between the GMs. And there is no harder GM to deal with than Billy Beane, and if you've read Moneyball (or its bad-ass movie script) then you know what's up. Luckily for the Cubs, Hendry and Beane have worked together before, as recently as the deal that brought in Rich Harden.

When it comes to Beane, all trade talks begin with starting pitcher. Which means all trade talks must start with left-handed starter Sean Marshall and right-handed hurler Jeff Samardzijia. Maybe one of the pitchers the Cubs got from the Indians would intrigue Beane. I'm sure if Phil Rogers read this blog, he would have a suggestion of his own. As for hitters, Josh Vitters is as close as to untouchable as they get, if only because he will be with the team in two years when he takes over third and Aramis Ramirez takes over first. Everyone else is fair game.

It's up to you GM Jim. The Cardinals have thrown down the gauntlet and could be poised to run away with the division if the Cubs continue to slip down the slippery slope. But the GM of the two-time defending champs wouldn't let that happen, right?

Making sense of nonsense - Part 1

Just as I was writing this I paused for a moment: As the first domino falls in what should be a big offseason full of blockbuster trades, Matt Holliday was traded from the Colorado Rockies to the Oakland A's.......

I felt there was more coming.

But there wasn't. At least with the Holliday side of it.

Little did I know that just a few days later Chicago's very own "Dirty-30" would take his circus act to the Big Apple.

So as I'll try to do this offseason as the resident baseball expert, I'll try to make sense of this.

First off, let's take a look at the Holliday trade. From what we know now, the A's have acquired the stud all-star to shore up one of the worst offenses you'll ever see. Take into account just how bad Nick Swisher (.219) was for the Chicago White Sox, then look at the names slightly above him in batting average. Three A's players are right there with him in the low .200's.

But what does this trade really accomplish for GM Billy Beane? Sure he's got a legit five-tool threat but this guy can't do it by himself. Who's setting the table for him? I know it's all about on-base percentage will Beane but there's no way you can run a trio of guys with averages below .240.

I have to wonder if he's going to load up on more talent but that would require cleaning out the farm system, something he doesn't usually do. The A's still have a solid pitching staff, ableit Huston Street and Greg Smith via the trades but is this team good enough to win the AL West? I think Beane has to add another piece to set the table for Holliday otherwise he'll just spin him again for more prospects at the deadline.

Looking at the Colorado Rockies side of things, it looks like a great trade for them. It's hard to say it's great in principle because the Rockies coughed up their best player and one of the top hitters in all of baseball but his value couldn't be higher because he's headed into his walk year where the mid-market team couldn't reasonable afford him.

Consider the haul Colorado pulled in. Greg Smith struggled record wise as he was well below .500 but a record is no indication of how good a pitcher is. Save for a really horrific July where he posted an 0-4 record and an ERA just over six, Smith's 4.16 ERA looks solid. Of course those numbers may climb in hitter friendly Coors Field but he should be a solid back of the rotation starter none the less.

But that's not all the Rockies pulled in. The two key cogs in this trade are outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and former closer Huston Street.

Gonzalez came over before the season as the key piece in the Danny Haren trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Gonzalez is an uber-stud with the five-tool label that didn't exactly impress during his brief stint with Oakland, hitting just a shade above .250. Still, he projects to be a regular starter for Colorado almost immediately.

Lastly, we look at ex-closer Huston Street. With 18 saves and an ERA under 3.80, Street looks like a good idea from a two angles. First, let's say the Rockies try to compete in a terrible NL West. They'll likely lose free agent closer Brian Fuentes but Street fills in for cheap and allows the Rockies to collect two compensation draft picks when Fuentes leaves. If the Rockies quickly fall out of the race, they'll look to package Street again at the deadline, perhaps with third baseman Garrett Atkins to really secure a bright future with top prospects.

Look for a Swisher trade update in the next day or so...I'm still struggling to put in words what the hell happened.