Stat Boy: Screw It, Let's Sign Matt Holliday

The Chicago Cubs need Matt Holliday.

With a lead like that, I could go many places with this article.  I could write about how the new ownership needs to make a splash, one considerably more intriguing than re-signing John Grabow.  Or I could pen a piece detailing how taking signing a good player away from the division rival St. Louis Cardinals would make Cubs fans forget about that whole Aaron Miles experience.

Instead, the Cubs need Holliday's numbers.  That's right, Stats Boy presents the case for the Cubs to break whatever is left in the bank to bring in the slugging outfielder.

Holliday hit 24 home runs and drove in 104 RBIs in 670 plate appearances in 2009, single-handedly out-performing Milton Bradley and Kosuke Fukudome, who combined to hit 23 homers and drive in 94 ribbies.  For what it's worth, Bradley and Fukudome combined to make $16.5 million to post a .258/.376/.409/.785 slash line in 2009.

Tell me again how Jim Hendry still finds himself employed by the Cubs?

I'm sure an outfield that goes Soriano-Fukudome-Holliday would make me watch the Cubs a half-inning at a time (especially when Carlos Silva is pitching) but it would be much better than a Soriano-Byrd-Fukudome, Soriano-Podsednik-Fukudome or Soriano-Ankiel-Fukudome outfield trio.

Throughout his career, Holliday has proven to be a quality hitter during day games, posting a .316/.390/.520/.910 slash line in 1,087 plate appearances in games played in the sunshine.  If there is one statistic future Cubs general managers should look at, it is how a player hits during day games.  I cannot stress that enough for a team that plays a bulk of its home games at 1:20 p.m.

And just to show you I'm not bluffing, check out the slash lines of the other three "candidates" during day games.

• Ankiel: .250/.311/.451/.763 (81 games started, 118 games total)
  
• Byrd: .255/.311/.403/.714 (188 games started, 223 games total)
  
• Podsednik: .285/.350/.396/.747 (266 games started, 309 games total)
  

Only Podsednik's numbers are respectable of the guys Hendry will surely overpay for this offseason.  Then again, when a player who has played center field in only 80 games over the past three seasons is your best option, consider yourself screwed.

Then again, when you have a $140 million payroll and have holes at second base, center field, at the back of the bullpen and in the starting rotation...

Seriously, what the hell are you thinking Jim Hendry?  M.C. Hammer could be more responsible with $140 million, and he'd probably have much better taste in Cardinals cast-offs than you.  Why can't you throw together another back-loaded five-year deal and make this team better.

I digress.

It's not like the Cubs are going to sell out 81 games, make millions off television advertising, merchandising and concessions, and have $25 million potentially coming off the books at the end of the season when Derrek Lee and Ted Lilly hit free agency.

Oh wait, you're telling me all of the above will happen?  Well, then that changes everything doesn't it?

While the idea of playing Holliday in right field for 150 games in 2010 scares me as much as seeing Kevin Gregg or LaTroy Hawkins come into the ninth inning with a one-run lead, I would be able to find solace when Holliday steps to the plate.

I can't say the same for Ankiel, Byrd or Podsednik.

Chicago Cubs Holiday Shopping List

Baseball's busiest season for shopping GMs coincides with America's busiest shopping season.  How convenient.

And while the Chicago Cubs are not expected to be big spenders, let's take a look at where they can plug some holes starting this week at the Winter Meetings.

Milton Bradley

There is no secret unloading Milton Bradley is the team's No. 1 priority at the Winter Meetings.  It has been at the top of Hendry's to do list, just above "doctor's appointment" and below "building Krispy Kreme donut shop in basement."

The good news is there are three teams willing to take Bradley in exchange for something more than what he's worth.  And seeing Bradley is worthless in the eyes of many Cubs fans, getting anything for Bradley is a good thing.

Right now, it seems as if Bradley's most likely destination is Tampa Bay, but it is not as if the team's are close to an agreement.  Pat Burrell is the guy the Rays are looking to send to Chicago, but the Cubs have nowhere for Pat The Bat to play.  The Rangers still seem interested, and the Cubs could try to pry away Kevin Millwood or Brandon McCarthy if they are willing to meet the Rangers' asking price.

Prediction:  Cubs lay the groundwork for a deal, but don't trade Bradley during Winter Meetings.

Center Field

After the Cubs move Bradley, they will need a player to replace the dismissed outfielder.  Kosuke Fukudome will return to right field, leaving center field vacant.  The three names that have been tied to the Cubs have been Mike Cameron, Marlon Byrd and Rick Ankiel.

Byrd and Ankiel would be classic Hendry signings.  And that is not a good thing. 

Ankiel is a left-handed hitter, who can play all three outfield positions.  He's also an above average fielder with knowledge of the National League Central.  In past years, Hendry would have already faxed a copy of a contract worth $27 million over three years.

Byrd, at age 31,  is coming off a career year at a hitter friendly park on a contract year.  Last time that happened, Hendry outbid himself for the services of Milton Bradley.  Here's hoping that does not happen again.

If manager Lou Piniella has his way, Mike Cameron will be patrolling center field at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field.  Cameron posted a .795 OPS last year in Milwaukee, and an .805 OPS in three years under Piniella in Seattle.  He has hit at least 20 home runs in five of his last six seasons, averaging 23 home runs and 72 runs batted in over the last three seasons.

If signed, Cameron would instantly become the team's best defensive outfielder.  Outfield defense is a place where the Cubs desperately must get better.

Prediction:  Cubs sign Cameron to a two-year deal worth $15 million.  Rick Ankiel gets added as a fourth outfielder on a one-year deal worth $4 million.


Second Base/Shortstop

Top target Chone Figgins is off the boards after reaching a mutual agreement with the Seattle Mariners.  So, what's left for the Cubs?

If the team is truly serious about improving its team defense, Orlando Hudson should be the guy Hendry goes after.  He is a Gold Glove caliber defender who would fit in the team's offensive plans as well.  Hudson hit .293/.377/.463/.840 out of the No. 2 spot last season.

Cubs who hit out of the two-hole in 2009 batted a collective .265/.343/.411/.754.

The Cubs might be better served with a stop-gap shortstop and moving Ryan Theriot to second base in the process.  Unless, of course, the Cubs think Starlin Castro is going to be ready in 2010.  And if that's the case, is it too early to order my Castro replica jersey?

The two most attractive one-year options are Miguel Tejada and Orlando Cabrera.  If the Cubs want a middle-of-the-order hitter, then Tejada is their guy.


A former All-Star shortstop, Tejada could be a guy who hits 20 homers and drives in 80 ribbies batting behind Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez.  However, Tejada amounted 303 plate appearances batting second in the Astros line-up and hit .367/.393/.529/.922 with 7 HR and 34 RBI.  Could be intriguing for a top-heavy line-up.

A more reasonable choice could be Orlando Cabrera, who is a career .297/.329/.403/.727 batter out of the second slot.  Cabrera is a two-time Gold Glove winner who hit .289 with a .742 OPS in 260 plate appearances for the AL Central champion Minnesota Twins.

For what it's worth, Cabrera's team's have made the playoffs in each of the last five seasons.


Prediction:  Cubs sign Orlando Cabrera to a one-year contract worth $5.5 million.

Starting Pitcher

With Ted Lilly being sidelined for the early part of the season, and Rich Harden all but gone, the Cubs need another arm out of the rotation.  It will likely be on a one or two year deal, and since Hendry seems wary of trading his highly regarded prospects, acquiring Roy Halladay is very unlikely.  Here are five affordable starters I've targeted for Chicago.

1. Ben Sheets
2. Justin Duchscherer
3. Erik Bedard
4. Randy Johnson
   
5. Noah Lowry
   

Each has a high upside and potential, but with a many, many risks.

Prediction:  Cubs sign Ben Sheets to a one-year deal worth $7 million (plus incentives) -- similar to what Rich Harden's contract was last year.

Relief Pitcher

The Cubs would be wise in adding a hard-throwing, right-handed reliever to off-set bringing back John Grabow on a two-year deal.

Octavio Dotel, Chad Cordero and  J.J. Putz should each be looked at closely.  Each of these have experience as a closer, which is something that might be important if Carlos Marmol struggles at any point next season.

Do you really want Grabow closing ball games?

Prediction:  Cubs sign Octavio Dotel to a one-year deal worth $5.5 million.

Utility Infielder

The Cubs need a guy to replace Jake Fox's production, and I found just the guy.

Chad Tracy posted OPSes of .911, .794 and .800 before the injury bug depleted what looked like a bright future.  He's logged innings at first, third, left and right.

Conclusion

Good idea?  Of course.  That's why none of it will happen.  Still, I'm anxious to see what Hendry has up his sleeve.  Hopefully it is more than a Snickers bar.

Building A Champion: The 2010 Cubs

Cubs fans would have a lot to celebrate if I could pull this off.

   

In mid-October, I was challenged by a friend/reader to rebuild the Cubs.  It’s not as if that is a new concept to me, seeing that I’ve played this game on PlayStation, PlayStation3, XBOX and XBOX 360 many times before. However, the catch was to do it fairly, so not to take advantage of dumb computer GM’s that don’t appreciate young talent.  

Starting Point: The Cubs’ Opening Day payroll was $134,809,000, and I was given the opportunity to bump the payroll to $150 million after negotiating out of the original $145 million projection.

When building this team, my goal was to patch some holes with long-term solutions without spending too much money.  It was a difficult task, and one that will likely go unrewarded.

When you're done, I'd appreciate your criticisms in the comments section.  Thank you.  And without further to do, the 2010 Cubs, as pieced together by yours truly using The Hartwig Plan.
 

MUST-MAKE DECISIONS

1) Milton Bradley: To trade or not to trade?

For a guy who hit .257/.378/.397 in 2009, you wonder why his name is being thrown around in trade rumors.  Oh, that's right, he's batshit crazy.  The most logical place for Bradley to land is in Texas, where he would be reunited with Rangers manager Ron Washington and the designated hitter position.

In return, the Cubs would acquire right-handed starting pitcher Kevin Millwood, who is slated to make $12 million in 2010, which will be the last year of his contract.  Obviously, the Cubs would either have to chip in a prospect or cash to make up for Bradley's 2011 season, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

Millwood went 13-10 with a 3.67 earned run average in 31 starts.  He and Rangers management seemed to be at odds toward the end of the '09 season as he came closer to reaching contract escalators for a team that was out of the playoff push and was looking to save money in the process.  A one-year stint in Chicago could benefit Millwood and the Cubs, while Bradley's return to the heart of the Texas line-up just might be what the doctor ordered for Crazy Uncle Milton.

2) John Grabow: long term deal, arbitration, or not?

This one is too easy, it doesn't need a lengthy explanation -- especially since both sides are inching toward a deal.  Jim Hendry should put a two-year offer worth $6 million on the table.  If it isn't accepted, you take Grabow to arbitration.  And if he signs elsewhere, collect your draft picks and use them wisely.

FLEXIBLE DECISIONS

3) Who's on second? Jeff Baker, Mike Fontenot, Aaron Miles or somebody entirely different?

Neither Mike Fontenot nor Aaron Miles could start for my rec league softball team.  Jeff Baker is the top candidate if the Cubs do not bring someone in from the outside.

I plan on signing Chone Figins to a three-year deal and placing him at second base.  His speed at the top of the order adds a dimension the Cubs haven't had in a long time -- if ever.

4) Do you make room for Jake Fox on this team somehow or do you look to trade him?

Jake Fox is a serviceable player, but is more suited for the American League.  I would trade his bat for a hard-throwing bullpen arm.  In an attempt to find a team looking to fit my criteria, I found the Boston Red Sox, a squad that could use a right-handed thumper opposite of David Ortiz.  In return, I ask for righty Manny Delcarmen.

FREE AGENCY

5) Which positions are in most dire need of an upgrade?

The Cubs need help at second base, in the outfield and in the bullpen.  For the solutions to those problems, read the upcoming transactions.

6) Name three (or more) free agents you’d consider, at a price.

1. Sign 2B Chone Figgins to a three-year deal worth $30 million.  10: $8MM, 11: $10MM, 12: $12MM.  The Cubs need to add speed at the top of the order, and even though he slumped in the playoffs, I think Figgy is a game-changer at the top of the order.
   
2. Sign P Ben Sheets to a one-year deal worth $6.5 million (plus incentives: $200K first day on active 25-man roster, $50K for making NL All-Star team, $75K for NLCS MVP, $100K for WS MVP, $100K for finishing in the top three of Cy Young voting, $40K per day on active 25-man roster from July 15-October 3, $100K for NL Comeback Player of the Year. Sheets missed all of 2009 and is a perfect candidate for rotation insurance.  He's familiar with the NL Central and has a proven track record of being nearly un-hittable at times.  Maybe pitching half of a season would do him good.
   
3. Sign P Billy Wagner to a one-year deal worth $7 million (plus incentives: $50K for making NL All-Star team. $75K for NLCS MVP, $125K for Rolaids Relief Man, $100K for NL Comeback Player of the Year).  Wagner will be out to prove himself on a make-good, one-year deal.
   
4. Re-sign P John Grabow to a two-year deal worth $6 million. 10: $2.75MM, 11: $3.25.  Cubs get Grabby -- again.
   

TRADES

7) Name three (or more) realistic trades that could improve the Cubs.

1. Cubs trade RF Milton Bradley to Texas Rangers for P Kevin Millwood.  Bradley returns to Texas, where he had his best year under manager Ron Washington. The Cubs get Kevin Millwood, an expiring contract that serves as some insurance in case Ted Lilly doesn't return as soon as expected. The Cubs would pick up $6MM of Bradley's $10MM remaining contract in 2011 after Rangers chip in $1MM of Millwood's 2010 salary.
2. Cubs trade Ps Jeff Samardzija, Jeff Stevens, SS Ryan Theriot and OF Tyler Colvin to Detroit Tigers for Curtis Granderson.  The idea for this trade stems from this blog I wrote after reading this news story that suggested the Tigers could possibly trade Granderson.  I think it's a steep price for the Cubs, who give up a pair of quality young arms, an up-and-coming outfielder and a more-than-serviceable (especially by Detroit's standards) middle infielder, all while clearing up $36.75MM of salary. (And yes, it ushers in the Starlin Castro era at shortstop)
   
3. Cubs trade UTIL Jeff Fox to Boston Red Sox for P Manny Delcarmen.  The Cubs don't have a position for Fox.  The Red Sox have an abundance of bullpen arms.  Fair trade?
   

SUMMARY

I accomplished all of my goals going into this thing.

• Get rid of Crazy Uncle Milton? Check.
• Re-sign Grabby? Check.
• Acquire speedy second baseman? Check.
• Add bullpen arms? Check.
• Pick up rotation insurance? Check.
• Bring in center fielder that is actually good at playing center field? Check.
• Inject anabolic steroid? Um. Un-check?

Alright, so I didn't do it all.  The Cubs are still missing a power-hitting left handed bat, but I think Granderson can get back to the days of 20 homers, 20 doubles and possibly 10-15 triples even though Wrigley is far from a triples park.  Some of his gap doubles might turn into home runs at Wrigley.  Just keep him away from lefties (.183 BA in 2009) and Lou Piniella's offense will be fine.

Your 2010 team should look a little something like this:

C - Geovany Soto - $575K

C - Koyie Hill - $475K+

1B - Derrek Lee - $13MM

2B - Chone Figgins - $8MM (signed via free agency)

SS - Starlin Castro $402K

3B - Aramis Ramirez - $15.75MM

IF - Aaron Miles - $2.7MM

IF - Andres Blanco - $400K

LF - Alfonso Soriano - $18MM

CF - Curtis Granderson - $5.5 (acquired via trade)

RF - Kosuke Fukudome - $13MM

OF - Sam Fuld - $402K

UTIL - Jeff Baker - $415K+

SP - Carlos Zambrano - $17.875MM

SP - Ryan Dempster - $12.5MM

SP - Ted Lilly - $12MM

SP - Kevin Millwood - $11MM (acquired via trade)

SP - Ben Sheets - $6.5MM

SP - Randy Wells - $402K

SP - Tom Gorzelanny - $433K+

RP - Billy Wagner - $7MM+ (signed as a free agent)

RP - Carlos Marmol - $575K+

RP - Sean Marshall - $450K+

RP - Angel Guzman - $422K+

RP - John Grabow - $2.75MM (re-signed via free agency)

RP - Esmailin Caridad - $400K

RP - Manny Delcarmen $476K

In: Chone Figgins (free agent), Billy Wagner (free agent) Ben Sheets (free agent), Curtis Granderson (traded from Detroit), Manny Delcarmen (traded from Boston), Kevin Millwood (traded from Texas)

Out: Milton Bradley - $9MM (traded to Texas), Jake Fox $402K (traded to Boston), Ryan Theriot - $500K (traded to Detroit), Jeff Stevens $400K (traded to Detroit), Jeff Samardzija - $2.5MM (traded to Detroit), Aaron Heilman - $1.625MM (non tendered), Neal Cotts $1.1MM (non-tendered)

You're everyday line-up: Granderson (CF), Figgins (2B), Lee (1B), Ramirez (3B), Fukudome (RF), Soriano (LF), Castro (SS), Soto (C)

All for the low, low price of $151,420,000.  This team wins a division as constructed, right?  Alright, well, I went over the budget by a million -- it's not as if the Cubs aren't gonna raise ticket prices anyway.

So, how did I do?  Is there anything you would do differently?  Was I fair?  Comments go in the comments section.  Duh.

Doing Jim Hendry's Dirty Work Part II: Does John Smoltz Interest Anyone?

John Smoltz could be the cure to what ails the Cubs' bullpen

I'm pretty sure I found the cure to the Chicago Cubs' bullpen woes. Problem is, they'd have to get it via the a waiver trade.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wonders aloud:

"On Monday, the Red Sox put John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Manny Delcarmen, and Ramon Ramirez, in addition to (Jason) Bay, on trade waivers. Of the players on the list, who would not be pulled back? The guess is all of them would be pulled back, but the issue is not black-and-white with Smoltz and Lowell. Smoltz has had limited success so far. You wonder whether a National League team would figure Smoltz could give it five or six decent innings as a starter in a less-demanding league for pitchers."

The Ludameister wonders aloud:

"What would it take for the Cubs to get John Smoltz, who converted 154 saves from 2001-2004, from Boston."

Smoltz hasn't closed since 2004 and posted 44 wins from 2005-2007 while making at least 32 starts. But since joining the Red Sox, Smoltz has been hit and hit hard as he is 2-4 with a 7.12 earned run average and a 1.500 WHIP.

As a reliever, Smoltz's K/BB ratio jumps from 2.92 to 5.60. His batting average against drops from .238 to .215. Opponents OBP dips from .296 to .254. Slugging percentages fall to .318 from .363. The WHIP slips from 1.189 to .976 while the K/9 ratio jumps to 9.6 from 7.8.

All of these are tell-tale signs to yours truly that Smoltz needs to return to the 'pen and to the National League.

Jim Hendry, I've done the dirty research work. You make it happen.