Pitchin' Ain't Easy: Why I Love The MLB Playoffs

The Major League Baseball playoffs began Wednesday, and there was one common feature found in each of the three games.

Damn. Good. Pitching.

The MLB playoffs are better than the other pro sports' playoffs because you need stellar performances from the most significant player on the field.

The pitcher.

The names and numbers will astound you.  This year's playoffs will feature five Cy Young Award winners with Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Chris Carpenter.  The quintet of aces have combined for a total of seven awards for being the best in their field, with Pedro and his jheri-curled greatness leading the pack with three.  Lee and Sabathia are the AL's last two winners -- both pitched for the Indians -- who fell off the face of the earth without them.

The five Cy Young champs combined to post a collective 49-20 record for their respective teams in 2009.

But Pitcherpalooza doesn't end there.

The eight postseason closers boast a collective 317 saves.  The class of closers lies in the American League  and is headed by Mariano Rivera, the Greatest Of All Time.  But it doesn't end there.  Joe Nathan (47 saves) and Jonathan Papelbon (38 saves) are as automatic as they come, representing Minnesota and Boston, respectively.  Brian Fuentes somehow saved 48 games for the Angels despite a 1.400 WHIP and 3.93 ERA.

In the National League, even Brad Lidge's return to earth yielded 31 saved despite an ugly 7.21 earned run average.  Jonathan Broxton of Dodgers converted 36 saves and whiffed a whopping 114 batters in 76 innings.  Huston Street regained the form that made him an All-Star closer in Oakland.  And Ryan Franklin learned under the watchful eye of Dave Duncan as he re-invented himself as an All-Star closer for the Cardinals.

Oh, and then there's Billy Wagner of the Red Sox, who has converted 385 saves over his 15-year career.  He'll help set up down the stretch for the BoSox in what is surely an audition to land a closer's role in the offseason.

Rex Grossman led the Chicago Bears to the Super Bowl.  He was the quarterback known for fumbling, bumbling and finding the other team's open receivers more often than he found his own.  There is no doubt in my mind that quarterback is the most important position in football, and there is an argument that it is the most important position in professional sports.

Baseball is full of Grossmans in the starting rotations.  Most of them don't get a chance to see the bright lights and pressure situations that come with playoff baseball because they have usually been eliminated for months by now.  Clunkers at the back-end of the rotation of playoff teams usually don't make the rosters.

Sixteen of the National Hockey League's 30 teams make the playoffs.  Same for the NBA.  In my eyes, that's a joke.  We're talking about more than 50 percent of teams being rewarded, and at least four of them are being rewarded by getting meeting the league's top teams.  Quite a reward for being mediocre.

In The Association, the point guard is arguably the most important position and is the focal point of each offense.  Yet, the Bulls won championships with Ron Harper and B.J. Armstrong running the point.  The Sixers went to the NBA Finals with Eric Snow running the show.  In most cases, superstars at other positions -- usually in the post (Shaq, Hakeem)or on the wing (Kobe, Jordan) -- carry NBA teams to titles.  In Roger Goodell's NFL dictatorship of parity and parody, you can make the playoffs with an awesome offense-lackluster defense combo, and visa versa.  But you won't win anything of significance without balance.  And the next year, you might end up picking in the top five.

 

Then there are the future aces of baseball.  Clayton Kershaw only went 8-8 in his first full season in the bigs, yet he posted a 2.79 ERA and struck out a team-best 185 batters in 171 innings.  Three-fifths of the Angels rotation is under 30, led by Jered Weaver (16-8, age 26), Joe Saunders (16-7, age 28) and Ervin Santana  (one year removed from a 16-7 season at age 25).  J.A. Happ (26) of the Phillies won 12 games as a rookie, and Ubaldo Jimenez (25) won 15 games for the Rockies who play in one of baseball's most hitter friendly parks.

Young stud pitchers aren't relegated to the starting rotation as the Yankees will feature fireballing 23-year-olds Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain out of the bullpen before Mariano ends your offense's night.  Not to be outdone, the Red Sox will send hard-throwing Daniel Bard (23) and Ramon Ramirez (27) to set up the just as hard throwing Papelbon.

Sometimes, baseball fans and followers get caught up in the gaudy numbers put up by offenses.  And I guess I can't blame them.  There is so much star power in guys such as Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Joe Mauer, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez.

But as the old saying goes, "Good pitching will always beat good hitting."

I'm not going out on a limb by saying that will continue to stand as true when the 2009 playoffs are completed.

Grading The Chicago Cubs Part II

Ted Lilly didn't suck in 2009.  In fact, he was the rotation's most steady force.  You know who did suck in 2009?

THIS PRICK!

STARTING PITCHERS

Ted Lilly, B+ -- The Cubs' lone All-Star representative won 12 games and led the team with a 1.05 WHIP.  Though he pitched like it in 2009, 2010 is a contract year for Teddy Neversmile.  Expect big things.

Ryan Dempster, B- -- Dempster pitched like someone deserving of a four-year, $52 million extension in the second half where he posted a 6-4 record, 3.15 earned run average, 1.23 WHIP and a 3.95-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  Demp was also the only Cub starter to throw 200 innings.

Randy Wells, B -- The only thing holding back Wells were his the Nationals, Cardinals, Giants and Rockies where he posted a 1-4 record, 7.29 ERA and allowed 37 hits and 12 walks in 28 1/3 innings (1.72 WHIP).

Rich Harden, C -- Harden's solid second half (4-3, 2.55 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 88 strikeouts in 67 innings) was not enough to push the Cubs into the playoffs nor was it enough to overlook the fact that he had to be shut down in early September.

Carlos Zambrano, C -- I'm sure Dave Kaplan and Steve Stone would disagree with this grade and give Zambrano a flat-out F.  But how much better could Big Z have been if he would have gotten some support in the 9 no decisions in which he went at least six innings and allowed three runs or less?

RELIEVERS

Kevin Gregg, F -- See the Kevin Gregg and Kevin Gregg Sucks tags.

Sean Marshall, B -- Limited lefties to a .243 batting average and in a relief role, opposing hitters only hit .257.  Should either be trade bait or left in the bullpen.  As a starter, Marshall was roughed up.

Carlos Marmol, C+ -- Marmol walked and hit too many batters to get a B, but the fact that he excelled in the closer's role balances out his struggles as a set-up man in 2009.

Aaron Heilman, D -- I still can't believe you gave up a game-winning homer to Yadier Molina in the 2006 NLCS.  That still sticks in my craw.

Angel Guzman, B- -- My only advice for Guzman is to quit hurting yourself.  Oh, and to quit hurting Derrek Lee.  Guzman is slated to be Marmol's top set-up man in 2010.  He's also slated for surgery later that season.

THE OTHERS

Tom Gorzelanny, C -- I want to see more but I fear that you'll pitch more like you did with the Pirates than how you did with the Cubs.

John Grabow, B -- I can't believe you want a three-year deal.  But you did drop your WHIP from 1.50 to 1.24 after joining the Cubs.  Sounds like the kind of guy Jim Hendry would throw lots of money at for no reason.

David Patton, F -- Second worst Rule V draft pick ever.  The worst was the fact that Hendry selected Josh Hamilton only to sell him to the Cincinnati Reds before he blew up with the Rangers.  Not like the Cubs are looking for a slugging left-handed hitting outfielder...

Chad Fox, F -- Waste of a roster spot.

Neal Cotts, F -- See above.

Jason Marquis Luis Vizcaino, Incomplete -- I forgot you were even on the team at one point.

Jeff Samardzija, F -- Report to Halas Hall, immediately!

Jose Ascanio, Kevin Hart, A -- I still cannot believe the Cubs got a pair of warm bodies for these scrubs.  One of Hendry's best moves of the season.

Esmailin Caridad, Justin Berg, Jeff Stevens; Incomplete -- Come back in 2010 and prove you don't suck.

Stat Boy Learns That Pitchin' Ain't Easy

So much has been written about the Cubs' lack of hitting, that sometimes people overlook the guys on the bump.  To the naked eye, it looks like the Cubs got waxed in their three-game set against the Cardinals.  But to the wise observer, the Cubs starters should be showered with praise after handcuffing one of baseball's best offenses.

Cubs starters Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano combined to eat up 21.2 innings over the weekend.  That's $37.75 million worth of starting pitching earning their respective paychecks.  Lilly and Big Z each allowed two earned runs, while Dempster only allowed one -- on the Brendan Ryan home run with the assist from Bobby Scales' mitt.  The trio's collective WHIP over the weekend  was 1.037.

Those are the kinds of numbers that pitching coaches dream about seeing.  Too bad Larry Rothschild won't get any credit for this.  It's safe to assume that had Dave Duncan been working with this bunch, Teddy, Demp and Big Z would have thrown 27 innings of perfect ball.

More drool-inducing numbers after the jump.

For Lilly, it was more of the same.  Has he benefited from switching from the AL to the NL?  Of course it's only natural. The namesake of former president Theodore Roosvelt, Lilly has posted a 44-25 record since returning to the senior circuit after stints with the Yankees, A's and Blue Jays  His earned run average dipped from 4.52 to 3.84.  Take away his 7.61 ERA in his brief stint with the Washington Nationals Montreal Expos, it drops to 3.68.  And despite a stint on the 15-day DL, Lilly is on pace to make at least 30 starts for the fifth straight year, and seven out of his last eight.

His contract is up after the 2010 season, and if he stays healthy, he could find himself signing an extension to stay in Cubbie blue pinstripes.  At this point, I'd be willing to hook Jim Hendry up to an EKG machine A.S.A.P. to make it happen.

Then there is Dempster, who is pitching more like the guy who won 17 games last season than the guy who imploded in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Dodgers.  He owns a 5-3 record in the second half, a 3.19 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and a 3.59-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  Over his last five starts, Dempster has a 3-1 record, 2.29 ERA, 1.245 WHIP and a 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The key to Demps' reemergence has been his ability to limit the free passes.  Over his last four starts, Dempster has allowed only five walks in 54.1 innings of work.  In six August starts, he allowed 12.  He has pitched in 13 games in which he has received three runs or less in the run support category.  For those of you keeping score at home, that keeps him in a tie with Lilly.  Harden is close behind with 12 of those types of starts, Big Z has 10 of those and "Hard Luck" Randy Wells has only six.

Also, take note that Wells trails Zambrano by 0.01 runs in the run-support-per-game category as El Toro gets 4.86 runs per game to work with while Wells gets 4.85. 

As for Dempster, apparently, he had some issues at home with his child that weighed on him early in the season as reported via a Ken Rosenthal scoop on FOX Saturday baseball.  I've been one of Dempster's most harsh critics, but upon learning this, I'd like to tip my cap to Demp and wish him and his family the best.  If Dempster can get past whatever plagues him and pitch like this over the next three years, he'd be a welcome piece of the puzzle.

And how can you forget about Big Z, the richest member of the North Side's Big Three.  Zambrano earned a buck or two with a quality performance in St. Louis, a team he doesn't always match-up well against.  He scuffled in the fifth inning but did rebound to work a scoreless sixth en route to a no-decision.  Big Z now has 12 of those this year.  His numbers in NDs are as follows: 75.1 IP 3.46 ERA 1.30 WHIP ... all while holding hitters to a .227 batting average against and an OPS of .692.

If Big Z wins half of those starts, it would put him at 14-6.  And by my count, 14-6 > 8-6.

But what do I know?  I'm just Stat Boy.

Is Dave Duncan Really The Answer?

Dave Duncan is a man's man.  He has cured the world of illness, brought global and universal peace, saved the United States economy and rescued kitties from trees.

OK, he hasn't done any of that.  But by some of the things people are writing about him, you would be surprised to hear that he has yet to accomplish any of those things.  For what it's worth, Duncan is an excellent pitching coach -- so much so that some say that he would be a first-ballot Hall of Famer if there was such a distinction for pitching coaches.

The much-maligned (and deservedly so) David Kaplan and the well-respected Bob Verdi have both made the pitch for the new Cubs regime to bring Duncan to cure what ails the Cubs' pitching staff.

But is it worth it?

Larry Rothschild does not deserve as much heat as he has gotten since becoming the Cubs' pitching coach way back in 2001 when Don Baylor stepped in.  This season, the starting rotation ranks in the top five in quality starts, earned run average, strikeouts and hits-allowed-per-nine innings.  Oh, and they just miss the cut in WHIP ranking sixth.

Cubs fans find Rothschild an easy target for blame despite the fact that he can not be blamed for the following:

• Ruining the prized arms of Mark Prior & Kerry Wood.
• The Kevin Gregg experiment. He sucked before coming to the Cubs and he'll suck some more once he's gone.
• Rich Harden's inability to go into the eighth and ninth innings. He didn't do it in Oakland, he isn't doing it here.
• Neal Cotts.  (See: reasoning behind the suckfest that is Gregg, Kevin)

So, what has Rothschild done?  For starters, he has helped Cub pitchers develop and execute their strikeout pitches.  The Cubs have ranked in the top 5 in punch outs since Rothschild's debut.  And when you have the cavalcade of defensive suck the Cubs have trotted out to the Wrigley Field pasture.  You can't blame a guy for wanting his pitchers to pitch away from the team's weakness.  He's nurtured Carlos Marmol and Angel Guzman into steady relievers, just as he did with Kerry Wood.  He helped turn Ryan Dempster from below average reliever to above average starter.

Cubs fans, don't get it twisted.  If Dave Duncan does come to Chicago, he's not bringing Albert Pujols, Matt Holiday or your beloved Mark DeRosa with him.  And thanks to the state tax increase on liquor, it's very unlikely Tony La Russa will want to follow him to Chicago.

Duncan has worked wonders with career journeymen such as Joel Pineiro and Ryan Franklin, which is why Cubs fans wet themselves trying to imagine what Duncan could do with a pitching staff with $43 million worth of a returning starting rotation.  Could he corral Big Z's emotions?  Find some consistency in Dempster?  Push Harden past the seventh?

Who knows.  He sure as hell won't help Alfonso Soriano catch a fly ball.  Nor will he help Kosuke Fukudome from swinging at a ball in the dirt.  And despite the magic he worked in St. Louis, he doesn't have anything in his magical cabinet that will help Aaron Miles, Ryan Theriot or Mike Fontenot grow up into big boys.

What I do know is that Duncan would have to be a fool to leave a first-place team for a struggling division rival, no matter how mad he is at the Cardinals for demoting, then trading his son.

And if Cubs fans are wearing thin on the primadonna acts of Zambrano and Milton Bradley, how will Cubs fans embrace a guy who threw a hissy fit because Ozzie Guillen sent a purpose pitch toward Lil' Chris Duncan.

Be careful what you wish for, Cubs fans.

Randy Wells & Rebuilding The Cubs Starting Rotation

Is Randy Wells a viable NL ROY candidate? The answer is yes? Oh my!

Had you told me that Randy Wells would be tied for the team lead in wins before the 2009 season started, I would have predicted doom and devastation for the Cubs.

And for the most part, that's what this season has been.

Yet, Wells has been one of the team's few bright spots.
He's got 10 wins, a 2.90 earned run average and a 1.223 WHIP in 21 starts. No Cubs rookie starter has posted numbers like that since Kerry Wood did so in 1998. But that's where the comparisons with the man once known as Kid K will end.  Woody, a former 1st round pick, whiffed 233 batters in 166.2 innings en route to a Rookie of the Year campaign which ended with his arm falling off and missing the 1999 season.

Wells, a converted catcher who couldn't cut it with the Toronto Blue Jays before being returned to the Cubs as a Rule V pick, is nothing more than your run-of-the-mill pitcher.  He doesn't possess a flaming fastball or a knee-buckling bender.  Armed with a sinking fastball, Wells hasn't completely sucked -- save for two starts against the Washington Nationals and a start against the St. Louis Cardinals.

With those kinds of numbers, the Rookie of the Year candidate, who could surpass Wood as he is projected to make five or six starts to close the season, is a virtual lock for next year's rotation.

The Cubs have $42.375 million tied up in next year's starting rotation as Carlos Zambrano ($73 million remaining on his contract), Ryan Dempster ($40 million) and Ted Lilly ($12 million) are scheduled to return to the North Side.

As a comparison, the Dodgers' top two starters (Billingsley, Kershaw) combined to make $879,000 in 2009 and will see the contracts of Randy Wolf ($5 Million) and Jason Schmidt ($12 million) come off the books after the season.

And while there are advocates against re-signing Rich Harden, that just means the Cubs would have a battle for the final spot in the rotation between lefties Sean Marshall and Tom Gorzelanny.

Before you get all excited, consider this. Marshall is 16-26 (!) as a starting pitcher.  In that role, he owns a 4.86 ERA and a 1.434 WHIP.  As a reliever, Marshall owns a 3.25 ERA, 1.295 WHIP and is holding batters to a .225 batting average.

Gorzelanny, as versatile as he is, doesn't really wow me either.  Sure, he posted a 14-10 record for a lowly Pittsburgh Pirates team as a rookie, but overall, the numbers aren't that great.  In fact, they are on the same plane as Marshall's.  Gorzelanny owns a 24-26 record as a starter to go along with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.491 WHIP.  But in his defense, he spent five-and-a-half years in Pittsburgh.

With that said, the final month of the season should be used to see if one of these lefties will cut it in 2010.

Beyond that, what should the Cubs do?  They should start with offering Harden arbitration, and if they lose a bidding war, so be it, they'll get two draft picks in return.  John Lackey headlines a weak free-agent market, which could make Zambrano, Dempster or even Lilly valuable commodities on the trade market.

If the Arizona Diamondbacks exercise their $500,000 buyout on injured starter Brandon Webb, the Cubs should take a flier on him.

As of press time, the Cubs rank in the top five of National League pitching staffs in strikeouts (1,009, 4th), ERA (3.94, 5th), K/9 (7.8, 2nd), H/9 (8.3, 3rd) while ranking sixth in WHIP (1.335).

So, short of rounding out the rotation with retreads such as Randy Johnson, Andy Pettitte, Randy Wolf or Jarrod Washburn, what should the Cubs do in regards to building a starting rotation?

Defending This Generation Of Starting Pitchers

Reports indicating that Mark Prior's time with the San Diego Padres is done have given old, crusty baseball weirdos an outlet to rag about the good ol' days when you walked up a hill 20 miles each way (in the snow, mind you) to get to and from Crosley Field in between tales of how great pitchers were back in the "good ol' era" of baseball and about how these new guys are pansies.

Of course, those were the days when cars lasted forever, gas was cheap and love was free. Now, unless it's from Japan -- it stalls coming out of the lot. And unless you're getting E-85, you're paying somewhere around $3.00 per gallon. And unless you've got $81,000 in a backpack, you're getting no love at the club.

That is where this generation of baseball fans needs to stand up for themselves. For years, I heard those baseball tales, and with all due respect to my mother -- who raised me to be the baseball-loving goof that I am -- she's wrong. That whole generation is wrong. And don't let them tell you they've never made mistakes, for that is the same generation that elected George W. Bush to the U.S. presidency. Twice.

My beef with my mother and the older generation of baseball fans is that they compare this entire era of pitchers with Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson and others of that ilk. All of these guys are Hall of Famers. That would be like Yankee fans complaining about Nick Swisher's production in right field because once upon a time, the Bronx Bombers had a right fielder that averaged 46 homers and 143 RBIs per year.

So, why aren't all 29 baseball teams producing Koufaxes, Seavers and Gibsons? I could tell you about how expansion has weakened the overall talent pool. Or I could talk about how lowering the mound has hurt pitchers' velocity, as this former C-student (in science) could tell you that throwing from a higher leverage point will help you throw harder.

But it is much more simple than that. The truth is: Hitters are better these days.

And to prove my point, I (begrudgingly) have to make an example of Bob Gibson.

In 1969, Gibson led the league in complete games, tossing 28 in 35 starts. And while he threw at least two complete games against each of the other 11 teams in the National League -- an incredible feat in the least -- my argument is that he did so against inferior offensive competition.

For example:

The world champion New York Mets, a team beloved in my mother's heart as she grew up a Mets fan in New York. (Yeah, everyone makes mistakes) The Miracle Mets had six everyday players batting .271 or lower, only one player with an OBP over .350 and only two players OPSing higher than .800.

Sounds like a pretty crummy offense for a team that won a World Series.

So, let's compare with baseball's Washington Nationals. Yes, at 33-72, the Nasty Nats are just that -- nasty -- as they hold a firm grip on baseball's worst record. Yet, they rank fourth in the NL in batting average, second in on-base percentage and fifth in OPS.

The '69 Mets ranked seventh, 10th and 11th in those same categories in their banner raising year. No wonder Bob Gibson threw four of his 28 complete games against that pathetic offense. Not to take anything away from Gibson, but 16 of them came against teams that ranked in the lower half of the league in batting average.

A break down of Gibson's CGs are as follows:

Three against the Cubs (.253, 5th in BA), Expos (.240, T-10th), Braves (.258, 3rd) and Giants (.242, 7th). And two each against the Pirates (.277, T-1st), Phillies (.241, 9th), Reds (.277, T-1st), Dodgers (.254, 4th), Padres (.225, 12th) and Astros (.240, T-10th).

To put things in perspective, 2009 league average is .258, which would have been good enough for third best in the NL. In 1969, NL average was .250 -- meaning six teams in 2009 (including five which are at least .500) would have better hitting marks.

Clearly, hitters are better. So, what do pitchers have to do? Throw harder, more stressful pitches later in games. No longer can pitchers ease up when you get to the bottom of the order. Or save his bullets for a late-inning showdown with a team's heavy hitters.

The more a hitter sees a pitcher, the better a hitter knows the pitcher and his arsenal. And as the game goes on, velocity and movement tends to decrease. All of that spells doom for a fatiguing hurler down the stretch.

Why else do you think specialty pitchers have evolved in such ways? There is a reason managers would rather bring in a fire-throwing late-inning reliever rather than risk letting a fatiguing starter miss a spot and watch what was once a comfortable lead sail into the bleachers.

Managers and pitchers have sacrificed the art of the complete game for the bigger picture, which is winning ball games.

And in the end, isn't that all that matters?